Democratic Alliance leader, John Steenhuisen. Photo: Delwyn Verasamy
The Democratic Alliance is under massive pressure from its political partners to publicly declare that it will not form any coalition with the ANC after the 2024 elections. Should the DA not comply with its coalition partners demands, its plan for a moonshot pact to unseat the ANC and ensure that the EFF remains out of power is in jeopardy.
The DA’s allies have suspected for some time that the party is in discussions with the ANC for a grand coalition come the 2024 elections.
The Mail & Guardian understands that the political parties already in coalition with the official opposition party raised this during a meeting with the DA this past week.
Insiders said the meeting was “heated”, with ActionSA in particular calling for transparency from the blue party.
The parties are said to be also discussing a possible expansion to include other smaller parties.
The moonshot pact was first mooted by DA leader John Steenhuisen after his re-election as party leader in April, but the process got off to a slow start over several issues, including which parties should participate and be represented.
The pact aims to create a coalition of minority parties with a combined majority large enough to replace the ANC — or a potential ANC-Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) coalition — after next year’s poll.
A previous meeting was said to have agreed to invite the Abantu Batho Congress — which helped the ANC retain control of eThekwini in 2021 despite losing its majority — to participate in the next weekly meeting.
But the parties could not reach agreement on the involvement of the Patriotic Alliance, which is in a number of local government coalitions with the ANC and the EFF, including in Johannesburg.
This is believed to have happened despite the majority of parties agreeing that they needed to broaden the coalition to muster the numbers necessary to unseat the ANC in the coming national and provincial elections.
Speaking to the M&G last week, ActionSA chairperson Michael Beaumont said the party was “deeply troubled” by the rumours around a coalition between the DA and the ANC.
“I think we must be clear, this isn’t just murmurs, the DA and its leadership on numerous occasions have said it themselves. So it’s no longer a rumour. It’s something that is openly being spoken off,” he said.
“ActionSA is engaging other parties in the convention — including the DA — to say that they are very concerned by the idea that this continues to be what the DA is talking about. And that our view was that while we are discussing this pact, and while we may form part of a pact, there has to be an unequivocal and non negotiable commitment to building a majority behind that pact. And that means we can’t have a talk with a fork tongue of possible coalition with the ANC while we are trying to build a majority.”
Beaumont said that there must also be decision-making that actually gives the pact the best chance of achieving a majority, including expanding to more coalition partners.
“That’s what we want to see happen. But I think critically, we will exercise our voice within this group of parties in a constructive manner, so that we can persuade people of the need for this kind of approach.”
He said there was a trust deficit with the coalition partners and the DA adding that local government elections had produced that.
“I think to the credit to the parties concerned, people are engaging in these talks in a manner that is cognisant of that and sensitive to that. And so far, the process, I think, has done very well to continue building trust, it’s going to be an ongoing programme,” Beaumont said.
“But certainly what that really does underline is the imperative that policies engage in good faith in these negotiations, because there can be different views that are equally valid. And we have to have a situation where we find consensus in the most responsible way.”
Freedom Front plus leader Pieter Groenewald said the party was wary of the DA and ANC coalition. He said the FF+ would insist on agreement from all political parties in the coalition to clearly state what happens when it comes to a government after the election.
“I always say political parties, politicians, they say something, they will even sign a declaration, but if they change — let’s take the possibility of the DA going with the ANC — there’s nothing you can do before the time, what you can ask then, is commit yourself?” he said.
“If they say yes, and they sign the declaration, everything is fine. They can still switch but then I’d say then the electorate must deal with those political parties that are not trustworthy and have no integrity in keeping their word and the promises towards the electorate. They will deal with those political parties in the next election.”
The Inkatha Freedom Party leader Velenkosi Hlabisa said his party had raised concern over the “big brother” attitude of the DA in coalitions. The IFP is in coalition with the DA in over 12 municipalities in KwaZulu-Natal.
Hlabisa said those who act as big brothers in the coalition will be held to account. He added that while the IFP believes the DA is committed to the pact, it must reflect on its attitude which destroyed the coalition in the City of Johannesburg.
“I have engaged the Democratic Alliance a number of times and they assured me that as of now, there is nothing between the DA and the ANC. So it doesn’t give me any sleepless nights. But I do know that the coalition party with which we are involved are unable to make 50 percent plus one, there will be nothing bending any of the parties not to look for a coalition that can make 50% plus one,” said Hlabisa.
“You can’t make your coalition that does not make a government… So now, the theory could be sponsored by people who want to disrupt the initiative, which involves DA, IFP, ActionSA, FF+ and other smaller parties. It can be possible to use propaganda machinery in order to block this move by throwing the ANC and the DA together. From where I stand,I don’t believe it is true.”
Polls last year predicted that the ANC would take less than 50% of the vote next year — for the first time since the inaugural democratic elections in 1994 — and would require the cooperation of the EFF to retain power.
But the most recent poll by market research company Ipsos in April predicted that although the ANC had fallen to 45% in terms of support, the ruling party was likely to retain almost 50% of the vote next May.
This would mean that any opposition coalition would require the participation of the EFF to govern, even in the provinces where the ANC’s support was lower than it was nationally.