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The Chicago Board Options Exchange's Volatility Index – widely referred to as Wall Street's fear gauge – has risen 67% from a six-year low in March, spiking 10% last week alone.
With Chinese credit markets showing signs of stress and investors continuing to worry about the implications of the US Federal Reserve's plans to taper its stimulus programmes, stability is unlikely to return soon. Here is your guide to the data releases, meetings and other events likely to drive sentiment over the coming days.
United States
America's data week will kick-off with a regional manufacturing gauge from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas on Monday. Good news, of a sort, is expected. Consensus is that that the Dallas Federal's general business activity index will improve to the breakeven zero mark in June from a negative reading in May.
On Tuesday, attention will shift to last month's durable goods orders data and new homes sales numbers. Economists expect the durable goods data to show that new orders rose 3.3% from April to May. New home sales probably rose to a seasonally adjusted annualised pace of 460 000 units in May from 454 000 in April.
On Wednesday, revised government figures are likely to confirm that the world's largest economy expanded by 2.4% in the January to March quarter, up from a 0.4% expansion in the fourth quarter of 2012, but down slightly from initial estimates of a 2.5% expansion.
On Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis's most recent personal income and outlays (spending) report is expected to show that Americans' incomes rose 0.2% from April to May. Consumer spending likely rose 0.4% over the same period.
Weekly jobless claims figures, also scheduled for release on Thursday, are likely to show that 345 000 people filed for initial unemployment benefits in the week ended June 22, down from 354 000 in the previous week.
Finally, on Friday, economists estimated that the final June reading of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment barometer will come in at 83, up from a preliminary reading of 82.7, but down from 84 last month.
Europe
Germany – Europe's largest economy – will dominate the continent's otherwise light economic calendar this week. On Monday, the Ifo Institute's current conditions index is expected to edge slightly lower but the forward-looking expectations index may rise slightly. Market research firm GfK's consumer sentiment index is forecast to remain flat on Wednesday, as is the country's unemployment rate – at 6.9% – on Thursday. Finally, on Friday, retail sales data for May might show its first positive reading in four months. Consensus is for a 0.4% month on month gain.
Attention will shift to France for the release of INSEE's June business sentiment index – expected to show no change – on Tuesday, and to the United Kingdom for Chancellor George Osborne's latest spending review and the Bank of England's financial stability review on Wednesday.
On Thursday and Friday, European Union (EU) leaders will gather in Brussels to discuss economic policy and job creation. Renewed concerns over the political situation in Greece are also likely to feature prominently in the group's discussions.
Prime Minister Antonio Samaras' fragile coalition government was dealt another blow last week as a junior partner – the Democratic Left party – said it would withdraw its four Cabinet ministers from government following a dispute over the fate of the country's state broadcaster and decide whether to support the government on a case-by-case basis moving forward.
Samaras' three-party coalition holds a thin 167-seat majority in Greece's 300-member parliament, including 14-legislators from the Democratic Left. Although analysts are divided on the exact ramifications of the Democratic Left's departure, the spectre of renewed political uncertainty in Greece sent the country's stock market plunging and bond yields surging on Friday.
Asia
Asia's upcoming data week is comparatively quiet. With no major economic releases scheduled in China, markets will have to wait until week's end for the first closely-followed indicators from the region. Japan – the world's number three economy – will release last months' consumer price index (CPI), unemployment, household spending, industrial output, retail sales and housing starts numbers on Friday.
Economists surveyed by Market News International expect May's national core CPI to have remained unchanged on an annual basis after a sixth consecutive year-on-year decline in April.
Japan's unemployment rate probably fell to 4% in May – its lowest level since November 2008 – from 4.1% in April. The nation's ratio of job offers to job seekers probably rose to 0.90 last month, its highest level since June 2008.
Economists expect last month's household spending data to show a 1.4% rise from a year earlier. If the forecast proves accurate, May would represent the fifth straight month of rising spending.
The ministry of economy, trade and industry's latest industrial production data is likely to show that output rose 0.2% in May from April, a fourth consecutive gain which most economists attribute to an uptick in exports.
After four straight months of decline, improving consumer sentiment probably led to a slight improvement in retail sales last month. Economists expect that Friday's data will show that sales likely remained unchanged in May from a year earlier.
Housing starts are likely to have risen for the ninth consecutive month in May. Markets expect a 6.4% rise in May from a year earlier, up from 5.8% in April.
Africa
Morocco will report first quarter growth figures on Monday. Ghana and Mauritius will follow with their own first quarter gross domestic product reports on Wednesday.
Officials at Morocco's High Planning Commission said last week that they foresee economic growth of 5% in 2013, a sharp improvement on the 2.7% expansion recorded last year. Growth is expected to slow to 2.5% next year, however.
New figures released in April revised Ghana's 2012 growth rate to 7.9% from a previously estimated 7.1%. The International Monetary Fund projects the West African economy will expand by 8% in 2013, largely as a result of increased oil production. The African Development Bank forecasts an uptick to 8.7% growth in 2014.
Mauritius's monetary policy committee cited downside risks to the island economy last week, when they announced their decision to cut the central bank's repo rate by 25-basis points – the first rate cut since March 2012. Officials simultaneously revised their growth forecast downward to 3.2% to 3.7% growth in 2013.
Elsewhere on the continent this week, South Africa – the continent's largest economy – will report April's detailed trade figures on Monday and preliminary trade figures for May on Friday. Statistics South Africa will release last month's producer price index readings on Thursday and the Reserve Bank will report last month's M3 money supply and private sector credit data on Friday. Nigeria – Africa's second largest economy – is also expected to release May's M2 money supply and private sector credit data this week.
Finally, Zambia and Angola will report their latest rates decisions and Zimbabwe, Zambia, Kenya and Uganda will update on consumer inflation over the coming days.