A meager six percent of adult South Africans put their faith in the Nationalists this week, and the ruling party produced its worst performance in nearly three decades. Even considering the white electorate alone, Wednesday’s poll was a slap in the face for the NP: only 48 percent voted for the party, making this the first election since the early 1960s in which it failed to achieve a majority.
But while the Conservative Party gained 17 seats (with Fauresmith awaiting a by-election to resolve a tied contest) for a total of 39, it was the Democratic Party which surprised observers with a final score of 33 seats – again of 13. The CP, which increased its 1987 vote tally by 131 583 votes, a jump of 26 percent, did not do as well as it had hoped, and most others had expected. But although it failed to live up to expectations, the party lost no fewer than nine seats by margins of 500 votes and under, and several seats by single-digit numbers.
With a Swapo victory imminent in Namibia and the prospect of Nelson Mandela’s release – both issues which played a surprisingly small part in the campaigning – some observers believe it is too early to conclude the CP has reached its ceiling. A two percent swing in the CP’s favour in the next election could hand the party more than 50 seats. A similar swing for the DP would take it up to 36 or 37 seats.
But locally and internationally the story of this election is that of the DP’s gains- a factor which can be expected to heighten expectations of rapid reform. An early indication of this in the international sphere came in the form of new British Foreign Secretary John Major’s first statement on South Africa. ”The results of the election show that 70 percent of white voters (the combined NP/DP vote) want change, and so do 100 percent of those not permitted to vote,” he said. ”That is a formidable mandate for change. ”We look to the new government to take steps quickly towards this goal.
In his response to the final tallies, NP leader FW de Klerk said he was pleased with the result and concurred that it offered a ”mandate for reform”, and more specifically for the NP’s five year plan. But in the last days of the election he had warned that ”expectations” of dramatic changes should be ”cooled”. The DP seems to have survived the NP’s election onslaught on it. ”The MOM’s defiance campaign and the ‘give FW a chance’ factor hurt us much less than many expected,” said DP parliamentary leader Zach de Beer.
The DP retained NP targets in Randburg and Greenpoint with impressive margins and lifted Bezuidhout, Hillbrow, Edenvale, Nortthrand, Wynberg, Simonstown. Umbilo, Umhlanga, Pietermaritzburg North and South, Walmer and Albanya from the Nats. The DP also took Mooi River previously held by the now-defunct New Republic Party. ”We were helped by the gatvol factor through which the Nats lost votes to both the left and right, but the results also show that a growing number of voters realise that there is no other way than one man one vote,” said De Beer.
The DP took 20 percent of the total vote, which would represent more than 21 percent if expected tallies in the DP’s two uncontested seats were to be included. The party did not fare as well as it hoped in Helderberg and Stellenbosch, but made major gains in several other seats with Afrikaans¬ speaking majorities. In Westdene, for example, it helped slash Foreign Minister Pik Botha’s majority by 1 706 votes, while strong DP and CP performances in Johannesburg West cut Roelf Meyer’s majority by 2 238 votes.
In Maitland the DP’s Esther Lategan reduced the NP’s lead from 4 280 to 1405 votes. But in constituencies where potential CP gains were looking likely, ”tactical voting” for the NP counted against the DP. One of the DP’s surprise results was Geoff Engel’s 356-vote win over Sam Bloomberg in Bezuidenhout. Bloomberg ran a robust campaign and had taken the seat from the PFP with a 2 442 majority in 1987. The DP also achieved a swing of 13,7 percent in Wynberg; 13,5 percent in Edenvale; 12 percent in Simonstown; 11,6 percent in Umbilo; and 10,8 percent in Gardens. In Randburg, Wynand Malan trounced former ambassador to Canada Glenn Babb by 1 714 votes in the ”glamour” race of the election. Said Malan: ”It is clear that we’re on our way to a Democratic government – if not in the short term then at least in the long term.”
De Beer won his Parktown seat with a 6 604 majority (2 651 more than Marius Barnard’s 1987 tally); co-leader Denis Worrall took Berea with a 4 279 majority (1 119 up on 1987). Among the seats now in the DP’s short-term range – if the current swing continues – are King Williams town (NP majority reduced from 2 731 to 401), East London North (3 873 to 500) and East London Central (3 782 to 446). Longer shots include Helderberg, Stellenbosch, Maitland, Westdene, Johannesburg West, Benoni, Waterkloof, Durbanville, Queenstown, Durban Point and Umhlatuzana.
The CP succeeded in finally putting paid to its ultra right-wing opposition in the Herstigte Nasionale Party. Even party leader Jaap Marais failed to re his deposit and the majority of candidates returned scores which would have been more appropriate in the House of Delegates. Only the tied Fauresmith result was affected by the HNP’s presence. Before the elections CP sources had routinely been predicting that the party would win between 50 and 65 constituencies, consolidating its position m the Transvaal platteland, sweeping the farming and mining areas of the Orange Free State and making significant inroads into the more conservative urban regions.
In the event, much of this did come to pass, al¬ though not to the extent predicted. But the basis of the party’s confidence was partly borne out in several cliffhanger constituencies which the CP lost. Here is a sample: Vereeniging (blue¬ collar urban), NP 7199, CP 7194; Gezina (conservative urban), NP 6 421, CP 6 414; Virginia (OFS mining/farming), NP 6 911, CP 6 864; De Aar (Northern Cape farming/blue collar), NP 4 402, CP 3 823; Namaqualand (Cape farming), NP 4 263, CP 3 304; Newcastle (Natal farming/industrial), NP 6 054, CP 5 093. Most of the other NP/CP marginals turned in similar results. It is worth noting that in the majority of new CP seats, the NP was defeated by relatively small margins.
But the significance of the two margins differs. The CP controls no significant media while the NP has enormous resources under its control. In addition the NP still carries a certain – though probably no longer very large – Afrikaner traditional vote. The NP made no inroads into CP held constituencies. Nationwide, in CP/NP contests, the swing was in the former’s favour. A significant exception to all these CP-favouring trends is Boksburg. The message to be drawn from the result – an NP majority of 2 390 votes against the background of a CP victory in last year’s municipal elections – is that CP realities are far less seductive than CP dreams.
Overall, the CP has had to face up to the fact that once its practical policies are put to the test – as in Bolesburg and Carletonville – many potential supporters get nervous. Arrie Paulus’ less-than-overwhelming victory in Carletonville is a case in point. Stellenbosch academic Professor Willie Breytenbach said yesterday he believed the CP had peaked in last year’s municipal elections, and ”was now shrinking and will shrink further”. Breytenbach said the CP had nailed its colours to the mast of ”exclusionary” politics, while 70 percent of the electorate had opted for some form of ”inclusion”, and would therefore find itself sidelined in the 1990s – which would be dominated by the concept of ”negotiations”. ”The CP,” he said, ”is now the true representative of rural Afrikaner exclusivist nationalism – but that nationalism is no longer central.”
The perception that the CP had performed disappointingly, even though it doubled its seats, could lead to a shake-up in the party, he said. Breytenbach said even the NP was realising that the future of South Africa lay in urban politics. ”We are now dealing with a smaller, leaner, younger party. It will be different in the way that it deals with the key issues of a constitutional future, negotiations, and the economy.”
However, University of the Witwatersrand Centre for Policy Studies Director Professor Lawrence Schlemmer warned that there was no certainty that all people who had voted Nationalist would follow the reform path. While he agreed that the CP had peaked, ·”it has peaked at a poin1 where it remains potent. This will break down the thrust and coherence of NP moves toward reform†– Gavin Evans, Shaun Johnson and Ivor Powell
This article originally appeared in the Weekly Mail.
