Speculation is that Mandela is fourth in line to walk off with the world’s most prestigious prize. The two hot favourites are Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbacbev and Czechoslovakian poet, playwright and president Vaclav Havel. Also in line to succeed the Dalai Lama as Nobel lauÂreate is leading Chinese astrophysicist cum-dissident leader Fang Lizhi.
Yesterday, the Nobel Literature Prize was awarded to Mexican poet and essayist Octavio Paz. The Swedish Academy of Letters said he got the prize for ”imÂpassioned writing with wide horizons, characterised by sensuous intelligence and humanistic integrity”. His best-known book is probably The Labyrinth of Solitude in which Paz offers insights into modern Mexico.
For the peace prize, Gorbachev is a front-runner because of his role in slowÂing down the arms race, and for allowing the collapse of Eastern ”bloc commuÂnist regimes. Counting against him is his government ‘s reluctance to allow its own republics to go their own way. Czech president Havel would be popular more because of what he represents than because of a central role in peace making. A leading international literary figure who retains rock cult hero Frank Zappa as a roving ambassador, he develÂoped an original philosophy of peaceful resistance in his country.
Fang Lizhi’s success would be another thumb in the nose for China. Last year the Beijing regime seethed at Tibet ‘s DaÂlai Lama getting it, but they have since done nothing to improve their human rights record. Perhaps China ‘s most prominent dissident, Fang Lizhi was one of the leaders of the June 1989 TiaÂnanmen Square uprising, and took refÂuge in the US embassy for more than a year before diplomatic pressure allowed him a safe exit.
Aside from Nelson Mandel a ‘s imÂmense international stature, his candidaÂture is strengthened by his role in the ANC ‘s decision to suspend its armed struggle. Counting against him is the fact that the negotiations process is curÂrently looking shaky, and that nearly 1 000 people have been killed in township violence. The world might prefer for Mandela arid FW de Klerk to share such, an award -but only after a settlement.
This article originally appeared in the Weekly Mail.
