One of me first post-election decisions the ANC will have to make is the choice of a deputy president. This sets the scene for a crucial title fight between two heavyweights: general secretary Cyril Ramaphosa and national chairman Thabo Mbeki.
The constitution entitles the two biggest parties in parliament — probably the ANC and the National Party — each to designate one executive deputy president. Although the constitution is vague on the roles of these deputies, saying only that they will do those tasks assigned to them by the president, these will be crucial positions of power and influence.
If Nelson Mandela, as is likely, wishes to play the role of national statesman of reconciliation and unity, he will want to stay aloof from the hurly-burly of cabinet politicking. In this case, he will want to designate one or both of his deputies to run me daily business of government. Deputy presidents are also members of the cabinet, have the right to address any house of parliament and one of them will serve as acting president when necessary.
The NP’s choice for its deputy presidency will be straightforward: party leader FW de Klerk. But the ANC will be forced to face the delicate question of who is the likely successor to Mandela — a holy contested issue. ANC insiders say that the jostling between the two obvious candidates has already marked many national executive committee meetings.
In one corner is Cyril Ramaphosa, whose rise to power has been nothing less than meteoric. Ramaphosa combines an outward charm with a ruthless political instinct, sharpened in the tough years when he headed the National Union of Mineworkers. He is a seasoned political infighter, and there are not many politicians who will survive close combat with him. His allies call him shrewd, strong and hard-working. His opponents in the ANC, particularly those who he has had against the ropes, call him a political thug.
He commands an enormous amount of respect, within and without the ANC, but has more than his fair share of enemies. One of them is Peter Mokaba, probably because Ramaphosa was the only leader prepared to stand up to Mokaba and Winnie Mandela. In an ironic twist, Mokaba is now backing the moderate Mbeki.
Of course, Ramaphosa is no less moderate than Mbeki, having proposed and backed many a compromise with the NP and Inkatha Freedom Party. But he has the knack of maintaining the image of a radical trade unionist and is more popular among the rank-and-file.
Mbeki, in the other corner, is the suave and experienced diplomat. Having spent most of his life in exile, he is used to the gentlemanly exchanges of diplomacy rather than the vigorous infighting of internal politics. He was ANC president Oliver Tambo’s right-hand man and spearheaded the movement’s successful international campaigns of the 1970s and 1980s.
This makes him a favourite for foreign minister, but he has indicated privately that this is not the post he wants. He has some strong support for the higher post of deputy president, but would also have a claim to the finance ministry if the incumbent, Derek Keys, is not kept in place.
Mbeki has a masters degree in economics from Sussex University. He does not have a strong popular base, having not been involved in much day-to-day branch activity since his return to the country in 1990. But he does wear the tie of the exiles the exiles’ old boy network.
Interestingly, both Mbeki and Ramaphosa have had complicated relationships with the South African Communist Party. Mbeki sat on its central committee in exile, but allowed his membership to expire after the SACPs unbanning. Ramaphosa was a provisional member before 1990, but chose to stand back once membership became public. However, he chaired the party’s homecoming rally in 1990 and won its strong backing when he ran for secretary general.
The choice between these two men is partly a choice of styles. Does the ANC want a deputy president who, with diplomatic aplomb, can spread the message of unity and reconciliation and draw together the disparate members of the cabinet? Or does it want a rough and crafty infighter, who will run the cabinet with a firm hand? Does it want someone with the image of a moderate and a conciliator, like Mbeki, or a deputy president with the tougher image of Ramaphosa?
Both candidates have powerful supporters. Personal dynamics have a lot to do with this. Mbeki is close to Jacob Zuma and together they are seen as the moderate wing of the national executive. Ramaphosa usually has Joe Slovo at his side. Mbeki is closer in style and temperament to Mandela, but it may be that Mandela sees himself playing the unifying role and wants a different kind of deputy.
On the other hand, Mandela is not that fond of Ramaphosa, having campaigned against him when he ran for general secretary. It is not a question of ideology, since there is no great distance between the thinking of Ramaphosa and Mbeki, nor of ability, for both have established reputations for their skills and talents. It probably has more to do with infighting — and on this level Ramaphosa wins hands down. The coup he scored this month in the Natal/kwaZulu negotiations has considerably upped his chances of scoring a knockout.
Mbeki and Zuma, the ANC candidate for Natal premier, had been leading the negotiations with me IFP and King Goodwill Zwelithini. But two weeks ago, as the matter was corning to a head, Mandela sent Mbeki overseas on a separate mission. Ramaphosa moved in — and he and Slovo were able to tie up the deal when it mattered. That followed a reported behind- the-scenes difference of opinion, with Mbeki having agreed to terms of reference for international mediation that made no mention of the issue of post-poning the elections.
Ramaphosa argued that the issue could not be left open — and this provided the breaking point that led to the failure of mediation, and in turn last week’s success in forcing Buthelezi’s hand. This typifies the kind of behind-the-scenes jostling going on between Ramaphosa and Mbeki at the moment. It should come to a heat at the ANC national executive meeting planned for May 3 and 4.
The ANC could opt for the kind of compromise that allowed it previously to avoid the question of secession. Faced with the issue last year after the death of the then vice-president Oliver Tambo, the ANC made the safe, short-term choice of Walter Sisulu. But the ageing patriarch is now firm in his desire to retire from active politics. Mandela could offer a deputy presidency to Buthelezi, thus accommodating him and avoiding the Mbeki/Ramaphosa showdown.
However, the deputy presidencies seem too influential for Mandela to relinquish them. He would be more likely, if he felt the need to accommodate the IFP president, to change the constitution to allow for a third deputy. So an Mbeki/Ramaphosa title fight seems inevitable. At the weigh-in, Mbeki was heavier, but Ramaphosa had the longer reach, Mbeki more experienced, but Ramaphosa quicker on his feet … There goes the bell for the first round!