/ 8 July 1994

How Misfortune Becomes a Disaster

DEREK KEYS’ untimely departure from the finance ministry is unfortunate. But poor handling made it more of a disaster than it should have been. Therein lies an important lesson for government advisers.

Journalists dealing with the new government have discovered that official spokesman often do not know what is going on in their departments and have to scurry about just to catch up with the information available to the reporter asking questions. This is a signal that ministerial spokesmen are being excluded from decision-making, a primitive hangover from the days when spokesmen were just that _ people who said what they were told to say and kept the media away from the minister. “Send me a telex,” was all they would say in those pre-fax days, and then they went off for the afternoon. Nowadays, however, they are all-important media advisers, whose role it is to develop media strategy, advise their superiors on the likely public impact of their decisions and plan accordingly.

These days any political decision made without an analysis of the media implications is certain to be an error _ as Defence Minister Joe Modise found to his discredit when he launched a bid to gag this newspaper.

When Keys told President Nelson Mandela last week that he intended leaving public life later this year, an immediate plan should have been launched to lessen the inevitable negative impact. In particular, a contingency plan should have been put in place to deal with the possibility of an early leak of the information.

Instead, when journalists contacted presidential representative Joel Netshitenzhe about rumours of Keys’ resignation on Tuesday, he said he knew nothing about it. Oh, dear!

The result was to turn a misfortune into a costly disaster. Speculation is always based on the worst-case scenario, and in this case the prospect of a dispute in the government of national unity was such a case. The markets reacted, and the financial rand and stock exchange indexes plummeted.

How much money could have been saved had Netshitenzhe had a prepared response that lessened the impact of Keys’ departure by reassuring investors that it was amicable?

Somewhere between the spin doctors of the United States presidency, whose job it is to manipulate the media, and the naivet, of our own government media representatives must lie solid, competent handling of the essential link between politicians and the public.

The premature withdrawal of Keys _ who has drawn praise for his performance, his budget and his cabinet contribution from his ANC colleagues, even in private _ is to be regretted. But there are other competent candidates for the job. So as long as the transition is smooth and the announcement carefully handled, there will be no need for market panic.