Insiders predict there will be little, if any, change to the ANC executive at its national conference. Gaye Davis reports
HIGH-LEVEL efforts are under way to persuade Cyril Ramaphosa to stay on as ANC secretary general, as his supporters rally against a bid to sideline him and concern mounts that a bruising power struggle may deflect the ANC’s upcoming national conference from critical policy issues.
It is understood ANC president Nelson Mandela has made it known he wants unity to be the watchword at the conference, scheduled for December 17. The scenario now being touted as most likely to unfold during elections for a new executive is that there will be little, if any, change.
Insiders say Deputy President Thabo Mbeki will step, as expected, into the position of ANC deputy president to be vacated by the veteran Walter Sisulu, who is retiring, and that Ramaphosa will remain as secretary general. It is understood that if Ramaphosa agrees to stay on he will have Mandela’s support.
One list of candidates being circulated proposes that ANC reconstruction and development policy chief Cheryl Carolus become Ramaphosa’s assistant, enabling him to spread his time and energies between rebuilding the ANC and chairing the constitutional assembly. One source described this as the “dream ticket” for the Cosatu and broad-left forces who want Ramaphosa, one of the ANC’s most astute negotiators and efficient organisers, to remain where he is.
There is little divergence between the political views of Mbeki and Rama-phosa. Ramaphosa’s detractors want him off the ANC’s executive to remove the possibility of Mbeki having to face a powerful contender who threatens his eventual assumption of Mandela’s mantle as leader of the ANC — and of the country.
Forces ranged against Ramaphosa include Women’s League leader Winnie Mandela and former Youth League head Peter Mokaba, astutely pulled in by Mbeki. But the alliance is not a comfortable one and both may have lost the sway they exercised before being elected MPs.
Apart from the enemies Ramaphosa accumulated while steering the ANC through inevitable compromises during negotiations, one of his problems has been the perception that he has failed to be an effective secretary general. He took the post when Mbeki was made the country’s deputy president and after he turned down the consolation prize of minister of foreign affairs.
But this criticism is seen in many quarters as unfair, given that he had to hold together an organisation that had the stuffing knocked out of it when its best and brightest moved into government.
“Those who don’t want him won’t be able to get around those forces wanting him in,” a source said this week.
But those who want him out may not give up without a fight. “The days of compromise solutions are over,” said another insider, referring to the deal made at the ANC’s last national conference in Durban three years ago, when Sisulu was elected deputy president and the late South African Communist Party leader Chris Hani and Mbeki stood down to avoid a divisive tussle. “Mbeki was groomed for the position of ANC president by Oliver Tambo. The ANC is very hierarchical; he’s paid his dues.”
Lists circulated amid frenzied lobbying include one naming senior ANC members Mendi Msimang and Josiah Jele as contenders for secretary general. They are said to be “dummy” candidates floated to confuse lobbies, as both are destined for ambassadorships. Jele was in fact voted off the ANC’s executive at the last national conference.
The situation is fluid and could change up to the moment when delegates cast their secret ballots in Bloemfontein. As recently as last week Ramaphosa told the ANC Youth League, which nominated him for secretary general while noting this had to be a full-time task, that he would not make himself available for re-election. On this basis, the league’s national executive committee decided last weekend to nominate ANC chief whip the Rev Arnold Stofile. While considered to have the necessary standing and ability to do the job, it is thought unlikely Stofile will stand against Ramaphosa if the latter opts to stay on.
Will he opt to stay on? If he vacates his ANC post and remains chairman of the constitutional assembly, Rama-phosa is doomed to political oblivion once the constitution has been written. Interviewed this week, he was silent on his prospects, except to say “the people will decide”.
Underpinning Mandela’s appeal for unity is the fact that the ANC, not immune to internal political tensions given the diverse range of ideologies and interests it represents, now confronts a host of new political challenges thrown up by the reality of power.
Media speculation about the leadership tussle has largely obscured the fact that the ANC has now reached a crucial pass in its 83-year history. The conference theme, From Resistance to Reconstruction and Nation-building, is a catch-all for an agenda which will force delegates into a profound scrutiny of the challenges facing the party.
Taking power has also placed new strains on the ANC’s “tripartite alliance” with labour and the Communist Party. Cosatu wants labour-friendly rule. Its members are increasingly resistant to “top-down” decisions by the ANC-in- government, and to its exhortations to wage restraint when ANC MPs now enjoy relative wealth.
People on the ground are impatient for change; there is little understanding of the tortuous processes involved in dismantling and transforming the apartheid state, while MPs have little time for constituency work — and, indeed, lack defined constituencies. “We need to find a balance between parliament and grassroots,” an ANC backbencher said this week.