Joe Modise’s attempt to gain cabinet approval for four new corvettes will not be plain sailing, reports Stefaans Brummer
DEFENCE Minister Joe Modise is experiencing opposition from the ranks of ANC cabinet colleagues in his quest to buy the navy four new patrol corvettes — at a cost roughly equal to the R2,5-billion Reconstruction and Development Fund set aside in the last Budget.
Early next month the cabinet is expected to approve one of two remaining tenders to supply the corvettes to South Africa, but the decision may not be unanimous. Chief among the opponents of the purchase is understood to be Jay Naidoo, the minister responsible for the reconstruction and development programme (RDP).
The tenders are closed to public scrutiny. Speculative estimates of the price South Africa will pay for the corvettes have diverged substantially, but an Armscor official close to the negotiations with overseas suppliers this week said the maximum cost would be R2,5-billion for the whole programme, including buying the ships, fitting them with armaments and electronics (done locally) and supplying them with helicopters.
This means Naidoo may have to update his own figures. In November, at a breakfast hosted by the Weekly Mail & Guardian, he said “reprioritisation” was an important element of the RDP and that tough choices would have to be made. “Do we want to buy corvettes for R1,2-billion, or build houses with that money? That is the choice,” he said.
If the expenditure on the corvettes is in fact closer to R2,5-billion, it will roughly equal the R2,5-billion allocated in the last Budget to kickstart RDP projects.
While Naidoo cannot show his dissent too openly, his representative, Thandeka Gqubule, this week explained his stance as follows: “The cabinet will probably decide in early February. As such the time is premature for extensive comment. Even so, we would urge the cabinet to do a full threat analysis to see if the corvettes are necessary. This all occurs in the context of ongoing debate on state spending, in which we take part and will obviously tend towards the side of social spending.”
A Defence Ministry official this week said Naidoo had probably “not been briefed” and that once he had the full facts at his disposal he would not oppose the acquisition. Both the ministry and Armscor sought to portray the acquisition of the corvettes as “relevant to the RDP”.
Defence Ministry representative Major Muff Andersson argued that a “functional navy” was essential to the RDP, especially after the recent extension of South Africa’s coastal waters when authority was assumed over the 200- nautical mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ). “You can’t talk about farming the sea and securing the EEZ if you have a pathetic navy.”
She said prevention of poaching by foreign vessels could not be stopped without an adequate naval capacity. The navy had suffered so much under cuts to the military budget — proportionally more than the army or air force — that within six years even the strikecraft fleet would be depleted.
Andersson said regional security and stability was also relevant to the RDP. “We suggest ourselves as a key point of entry to the region from the sea. We cannot do that if we don’t have the patrol capability of the corvettes. If we look at it in the short term, of course we should go for houses. But if we look at the long term, security is important.”
Andersson said it was unlikely the corvette programme could still be overruled: “The budget has been approved. It just needs the final stamp from the cabinet.”
Andersson and Armscor officials pointed out that the final contract would contain substantial guarantees of counter- trade, meaning benefits like local job creation.
Armscor announced in December that of the original five contenders, only Yarrows Shipbuilders of Scotland and Bazan in Spain have progressed to “the next round of proposal refinement”. Military analysts believe the only reason Yarrows was included in the shortlist is in the faint hope that it could still reinforce South Africa’s bid to supply Britain with the Rooivalk attack helicopter and that it could mean advantageous counter-trade.
But, said analyst Helmoed Rsmer-Heitman, it now seemed unlikely the Rooivalk deal would go through, and that the Spanish ship was cheaper and more suited to South African conditions anyway. The Spanish counter-trade offer involved buying South African coal, he added.
Heitman said it would be “shortsighted” of Naidoo to oppose the corvettes, as they were not needed only for war.