The Internet is exploding. Bruce Cohen goes surfing for=20 facts on the Net’s tidal wave of growth
MIKE LAWRIE, manager of Uninet, the vast computer=20 network that links thousands of South African academics=20 and students to the global information highway,is=20 feeling the squeeze.
Right now Uninet is shifting 100- million bytes of data=20 an hour virtually around the clock. A lot of the time=20 it’s operating at 100 percent capacity — and Lawrie=20 points out that only 90 days ago the capacity of the=20 network (its bandwidth) was doubled.
Uninet’s dramatic growth mirrors closely the=20 international trend — the Internet is exploding as=20 millions of people flock to the information=20 superhighway. Usage of the Internet has been doubling=20 every year for the past six years.
The statistics about ‘Net growth — if they are to be=20 believed — are staggering. And that’s the rub.=20 Everyone knows the Internet is expanding at a=20 phenomenal rate, but the fact is it defies accurate=20
There is no central co-ordinating body which supervises=20 the ‘Net — it’s an anarchic cloud of thousands of=20 autonomous computer networks which happen to co-operate=20 with one another. The only thing they have in common is=20 that they talk the same language, or protocol, called=20
This is the ‘Net’s most powerful feature, but because=20 there is no single authority in control, measurement is=20 an arcane science indeed.
Over the last week I scoured the Internet to find out=20 how big it is.
John Quartermann of Matrix Information and Directory=20 Services in the United States, who is one of the=20 leading net survey experts, offered the following=20 summary of the size of the ‘Net, based on a survey=20 conducted in October 1994. He estimated there were=20 13,5-million users of 3,5-million computers who could=20 use the interactive services supplied by the “core”=20 Internet, for example people who can use Netscape or=20 Mosaic to browse the World Wide Web .
But there are numerous other networks which can=20 interact with the “core” ‘Net via e-mail (known as=20 fidonet and bitnet networks). Quartermann estimated=20 that the combined total number of people who could=20 communicate via e-mail was 27,5-million.
Another ‘Net measurement expert, Mark Lottor of Network=20 Wizards in California, recently released the latest=20 results of his survey, which has been ongoing since=20 1981. Lotter’s Domain Survey attempts to discover every=20 announced host computer on the Internet (a “host”=20 computer in Internet terms is a computer that is=20 connected to and directly reachable on Internet via a=20 unique address. It does not include computers that are=20 part of other networks peripheral to the Internet such=20 as bitnet or fidonet).
Lotter estimated that in July this year there were a=20 total of 6,6-million Internet hosts.
The number of users “attached” to any host is estimated=20 to be 3,5, giving a current total of “core” Internet=20 users to be 23 million. Quartermann’s October 94=20 estimate (above) was 13,5-million, so it would appear=20 that the ‘Net has shown a growth of 10-million users in=20 the last nine months.
If the Lotter-Quartermann data is accurate, more than a=20 million people are joining the Internet every month.
Lotter predicts that, based on the the average rate of=20 increase over the past four years,the total number of=20 hosts in the year 2000 will be=20
101-million. And if the host-user ratio is realistic,=20 we can thus predict around 350-million people will be=20 on the “core” Internet at the end of the decade.
Lotter’s survey shows that most regional growth rates=20 throughout the world continue at averages exceeding 40=20 percent every six months.
South Africa has an extraordinary high ranking in the=20 global host count (16th in the world). If the host=20 count is reasonably accurate, then the average number=20 of users in South Africa (based on the ratio of 3,5=20 users per host) is about 150 000 people.
Bear in mind that many, if not the majority, of users=20 in South Africa are students and academics using the=20 Uninet network.
But the dominance of the academic world on the ‘Net is=20 ending, indeed it is over. The fastest growth area of=20 the Internet is in the registration of .COM domains=20 (.co.za in South Africa), that of companies entering=20 the information highway to showcase and sell their=20 products and services.
The latest figures for domain registrations from=20 Quatermann show that in the first six months of this=20 year .COM domains grew by 24 percent to 1,7-million,=20 while .EDU domains grew by 20 percent to 1,4-million.
At the end of the day, the statistics, taken with=20 however many grains of salt one wants, point to an=20 unmistakeable trend. The ‘Net is big and getting=20 bigger. How big? Well …
Internet hosts by country (July 1995)
USA =094 177 454
Germany =09360 434
Canada =09329 299
UK =09309 715
Australia =09207 876
Japan =09160 131
Netherlands =09145 139
Finland =09119 863
France =09115 841
Sweden =09112 881
Switzerland =0969 306
Norway =0969 044
Italy =0947 033
New Zealand =0943 863
Austria =0942 059
South Africa =0942 054
Who’s who on the ‘Net?
WHO uses the Internet? There are numerous surveys of=20 Internet users that attempt to give a picture of the=20 average “Mr/Ms Wired”.
The second WWW User survey conducted by Georgia=20 Institute of Technology during October and November of=20 1994, offered the following profile of Internet users.=20
* Age: median — 29; oldest — 73; youngest — 12.
* Affiliation: 51 percent — educational institution;=20 31 percent — commercial.
* Education: 34 percent — bachelor; 23 percent –=20 masters degree.
* Gender: 10 percent — female; 90 percent — male.
But a PCS survey of about 2 000 Internet users revealed=20 that 76,2 percent of users were male.
Other features of the PCS survey:
* 33percent — university graduate=20
* 19 percent — masters degree
* 67,3 percent — professional
* 24,7 percent — Student
Primary use of the Internet:
* 36,4 percent — research
* 26,5 percent — entertainment
* 18,8 percent — communication
* 11,4 percent — Sales/Marketing/PR
* 6,5 percent — education
Best feature of the internet:
* 33,7 percent — size of the network
* 15,8 percent — quality of information
* 13,1 percent — array of features/ client=20
* 12,1 percent — multi-cultural/ world-wide
* 10,2 percent — lack of regulation
* 8,4 percent — communication speed/performance
* 6,5 percent — cost to use =20
Most-used internet applications
* 60,3 percent — WWW
* 22,5 percent — E-Mail
* 8,0 percent — Newsgroups
* 1,8 percent — IRC
* 1,5 percent — Telnet
* 0,9 percent — Ftp
The Mail & Guardian’s Internet service, eM&G, is=20 conducting its own survey of South African users. So=20 far about 250 people have returned our interactive=20 questionnaire. We will be publishing the results next=20