/ 1 September 1995

A long and winding highway

The Internet is exploding. Bruce Cohen goes surfing for=20 facts on the Net’s tidal wave of growth

MIKE LAWRIE, manager of Uninet, the vast computer=20 network that links thousands of South African academics=20 and students to the global information highway,is=20 feeling the squeeze.

Right now Uninet is shifting 100- million bytes of data=20 an hour virtually around the clock. A lot of the time=20 it’s operating at 100 percent capacity — and Lawrie=20 points out that only 90 days ago the capacity of the=20 network (its bandwidth) was doubled.

Uninet’s dramatic growth mirrors closely the=20 international trend — the Internet is exploding as=20 millions of people flock to the information=20 superhighway. Usage of the Internet has been doubling=20 every year for the past six years.

The statistics about ‘Net growth — if they are to be=20 believed — are staggering. And that’s the rub.=20 Everyone knows the Internet is expanding at a=20 phenomenal rate, but the fact is it defies accurate=20

There is no central co-ordinating body which supervises=20 the ‘Net — it’s an anarchic cloud of thousands of=20 autonomous computer networks which happen to co-operate=20 with one another. The only thing they have in common is=20 that they talk the same language, or protocol, called=20

This is the ‘Net’s most powerful feature, but because=20 there is no single authority in control, measurement is=20 an arcane science indeed.

Over the last week I scoured the Internet to find out=20 how big it is.

John Quartermann of Matrix Information and Directory=20 Services in the United States, who is one of the=20 leading net survey experts, offered the following=20 summary of the size of the ‘Net, based on a survey=20 conducted in October 1994. He estimated there were=20 13,5-million users of 3,5-million computers who could=20 use the interactive services supplied by the “core”=20 Internet, for example people who can use Netscape or=20 Mosaic to browse the World Wide Web .

But there are numerous other networks which can=20 interact with the “core” ‘Net via e-mail (known as=20 fidonet and bitnet networks). Quartermann estimated=20 that the combined total number of people who could=20 communicate via e-mail was 27,5-million.

Another ‘Net measurement expert, Mark Lottor of Network=20 Wizards in California, recently released the latest=20 results of his survey, which has been ongoing since=20 1981. Lotter’s Domain Survey attempts to discover every=20 announced host computer on the Internet (a “host”=20 computer in Internet terms is a computer that is=20 connected to and directly reachable on Internet via a=20 unique address. It does not include computers that are=20 part of other networks peripheral to the Internet such=20 as bitnet or fidonet).

Lotter estimated that in July this year there were a=20 total of 6,6-million Internet hosts.

The number of users “attached” to any host is estimated=20 to be 3,5, giving a current total of “core” Internet=20 users to be 23 million. Quartermann’s October 94=20 estimate (above) was 13,5-million, so it would appear=20 that the ‘Net has shown a growth of 10-million users in=20 the last nine months.

If the Lotter-Quartermann data is accurate, more than a=20 million people are joining the Internet every month.

Lotter predicts that, based on the the average rate of=20 increase over the past four years,the total number of=20 hosts in the year 2000 will be=20

101-million. And if the host-user ratio is realistic,=20 we can thus predict around 350-million people will be=20 on the “core” Internet at the end of the decade.

Lotter’s survey shows that most regional growth rates=20 throughout the world continue at averages exceeding 40=20 percent every six months.

South Africa has an extraordinary high ranking in the=20 global host count (16th in the world). If the host=20 count is reasonably accurate, then the average number=20 of users in South Africa (based on the ratio of 3,5=20 users per host) is about 150 000 people.

Bear in mind that many, if not the majority, of users=20 in South Africa are students and academics using the=20 Uninet network.

But the dominance of the academic world on the ‘Net is=20 ending, indeed it is over. The fastest growth area of=20 the Internet is in the registration of .COM domains=20 (.co.za in South Africa), that of companies entering=20 the information highway to showcase and sell their=20 products and services.

The latest figures for domain registrations from=20 Quatermann show that in the first six months of this=20 year .COM domains grew by 24 percent to 1,7-million,=20 while .EDU domains grew by 20 percent to 1,4-million.

At the end of the day, the statistics, taken with=20 however many grains of salt one wants, point to an=20 unmistakeable trend. The ‘Net is big and getting=20 bigger. How big? Well …

Internet hosts by country (July 1995)

USA =094 177 454

Germany =09360 434

Canada =09329 299

UK =09309 715

Australia =09207 876

Japan =09160 131

Netherlands =09145 139

Finland =09119 863

France =09115 841

Sweden =09112 881

Switzerland =0969 306

Norway =0969 044

Italy =0947 033

New Zealand =0943 863

Austria =0942 059

South Africa =0942 054

Who’s who on the ‘Net?

WHO uses the Internet? There are numerous surveys of=20 Internet users that attempt to give a picture of the=20 average “Mr/Ms Wired”.

The second WWW User survey conducted by Georgia=20 Institute of Technology during October and November of=20 1994, offered the following profile of Internet users.=20

* Age: median — 29; oldest — 73; youngest — 12.

* Affiliation: 51 percent — educational institution;=20 31 percent — commercial.

* Education: 34 percent — bachelor; 23 percent –=20 masters degree.

* Gender: 10 percent — female; 90 percent — male.

But a PCS survey of about 2 000 Internet users revealed=20 that 76,2 percent of users were male.

Other features of the PCS survey:

* 33percent — university graduate=20

* 19 percent — masters degree

* 67,3 percent — professional

* 24,7 percent — Student

Primary use of the Internet:

* 36,4 percent — research

* 26,5 percent — entertainment

* 18,8 percent — communication

* 11,4 percent — Sales/Marketing/PR

* 6,5 percent — education

Best feature of the internet:

* 33,7 percent — size of the network

* 15,8 percent — quality of information

* 13,1 percent — array of features/ client=20

* 12,1 percent — multi-cultural/ world-wide

* 10,2 percent — lack of regulation

* 8,4 percent — communication speed/performance

* 6,5 percent — cost to use =20

Most-used internet applications

* 60,3 percent — WWW

* 22,5 percent — E-Mail

* 8,0 percent — Newsgroups

* 1,8 percent — IRC

* 1,5 percent — Telnet

* 0,9 percent — Ftp

The Mail & Guardian’s Internet service, eM&G, is=20 conducting its own survey of South African users. So=20 far about 250 people have returned our interactive=20 questionnaire. We will be publishing the results next=20