Gaye Davis
AS medical investigations wound their way this week to the predictable conclusion that President Nelson Mandela was fitter than most men of his age, a sense of crisis infused the presidency as the realisation dawned that the question of who will succeed him would have to be dealt with.
“There have been informal discussions about this for some time,” an insider said. But there has never been a time when the issue of succession was raised so prominently.”
The central dilemma for the ANC is how to signal, ahead of the movement’s own democratic decision-making procedures, to South Africa and the world at large that there will be a smooth transition — and to do this without giving the impression that Mandela is about to hang up his boots.
Financial commentators believe the rand’s shudders have less to do with Mandela’s health than with the need for confidence in government’s fiscal policies. But whatever the state of his health, he is still a man of 77. The question of his successor — and the way the transition is handled — is of critical importance.
Discussions — as yet informal — are underway at the highest level, within both the ANC and government, over how to effect as smooth a transition as possible.
At present, there appears to be no consensus on how the transition should be managed. But the prevailing view is that Thabo Mbeki will get the job — and that there will be no bruising contest between him and his chief rival, ANC secretary general and constitutional assembly co- chair, Cyril Ramaphosa.
At 43, Ramaphosa is 10 years younger than Mbeki. He will definitely get a Cabinet post once the Constitution is completed, almost certainly a senior one — his qualities are impossible to overlook. But those who know him say he sees the matter of Mbeki’s succession as decided and would not risk the political damage of a contest, preferring to bide his time and possibly run once Mbeki has served a term, or possibly two.
An indication could be given at the ANC’s next national congress at the end of 1997, when there will be fresh elections for office-bearers. Mandela has said he will see his term as president out, but under discussion is the suggestion that Mandela step aside as ANC president and let Mbeki assume the mantle.
“This would be a way of signalling continuity. The panic over Mandela’s health and who will succeed him underestimates the maturity of the ANC and the calibre of its senior leadership,” a source said.
Yet 20 months is a long time in politics. “Maybe Mbeki becomes ANC president at that moment, then again, maybe not, because it will be an emotional issue and in the ANC there is a feeling that the head of state should lead the movement,” said an insider. “If there was some hope of Ramaphosa getting it, he may be tempted.”
For the past six to eight months, work has been done to move Mbeki to the centre of the political stage and to eliminate any impression that there may be a contest between him and Ramaphosa.
“Suggestion of a contest could cause problems — not because of the individuals’ involved but because Mandela wants the stability he has created to continue,” an insider said.
Mbeki is now formally in charge of seeing the ANC’s goal of transformation is achieved. His public statements, programmes and activities indicate that increasingly he is in charge of the day-to-day running of the country, and that Mandela — while not relinquishing his control — is focusing more on what he sees as his primary task, nation-building and reconciliation.
He is expected to devote more and more time to this as he approaches the end of his term of office: he more-or- less said so when he addressed Potchefstroom University students recently, spelling out what he said would be his “last testament”.
“Mbeki has strengths Mandela does not have,” said an insider. “Mandela is the statesman of the century, but Mbeki has perhaps a better strategic capacity and the abiliity to direct in terms of width and depth.”
For the ANC, a key problem is to ensure that Mbeki is seen by the black majority as a promoter of militant change and also embodies the spirit of nation-building and reconciliation that emanates from Mandela.
Insiders say Mbeki is making broad strategic inputs in the ANC’s national executive committee — he wrote many of the discussion documents and position papers that have emerged — and is engaged with organisational matters, dealing with ANC premiers on provincial matters on a political level.
In government, he is acting as a de facto prime minister. Ministers report to him on their line-functions. He is in charge of Cabinet affairs for the ANC and chairs most Cabinet meetings, alternating with De Klerk. He has adopted a hands-on approach to the RDP, shoring up minister Jay Naidoo with the necessary political clout to get departments moving.
“We have to systematically now complete the package — – then the question of succession will no longer be an issue,” an insider said.
Concerns include dealing with perceptions of Mbeki being weak and tardy. Big business — who attitudes are often voiced by the NP and DP — question his credentials. Others say that he is efficient, but stretched too thin.
An astute politician well-schooled in the Byzantine politics of the ANC in exile, Mbeki likes to keep channels to influential players and tendencies within the ANC open. This is often interpreted as an expedient wooing of factions. He is also criticised for pushing people for Cabinet posts because they are allies, rather than the best person for the job.
Some within the ANC say he lacks charisma, though dealing with this will be an issue for his image-builders. Since November, he has been campaigning in KwaZulu- Natal, addressing rallies and small community meetings, in a bid to carve an image as a man of the people.
“You can’t reinvent Mandela, who is in a class of his own. But we do need a leader who inspires the same kind of trust and confidence that he will take the country forward,” said a source.
The issue of what happens after Mandela has been discussed within the South African Communist Party. At this stage, it appears the party will not engage in campaigning around a candidate. “We’re not a feudal organisation. We don’t want to make crown princes. We are committed to building a collective leadership,” a source said.
In the event of Mandela’s sudden death, Mbeki would become acting president. The ANC’s national working committee would come up with proposals to be confirmed by a meeting of the national executive committee. It would be up to Parliament to vote a new president within 30 days of the vacancy arising.
For the past six to eight months, work has been done to move Mbeki to centre of the political stage and to eliminate any impression that there may be a contest between him and Ramaphosa.
“Suggestion of a contest could cause problems — not because of the individuals involved but because Mandela wants the stability he has created to continue,” an insider said.
Mbeki is now formally in charge of seeing that the ANC’s goal of transformation is achieved. His public statements, programmes and activities indicate that increasingly he is in charge of the day-to-day running of the country, and that Mandela — while not relinquishing his control — is focusing more on what he sees as his primary task, nation-building and reconciliation.
He is expected to devote more and more time to this as he approaches the end of his term of office: he more-or- less said so when he addressed Potchefstroom University students recently, spelling out what he said would be his “last testament”.
“Mbeki has strengths Mandela does not have,” said an insider. “Mandela is the statesman of the century, but Mbeki has perhaps a better strategic capacity and the abiliity to direct in terms of width and depth.”
For the ANC, a key problem is to ensure that Mbeki is seen by the black majority as a promoter of militant change and also embodies the spirit of nation-building and reconciliation that emanates from Mandela.
Insiders say Mbeki is making broad strategic inputs in the ANC’s national executive committee — he wrote many of the discussion documents and position papers that have emerged — and is engaged with organisational matters, dealing with ANC premiers on provincial matters on a political level.
In government, he is acting as a de facto prime minister. Ministers report to him on their line-functions. He is in charge of Cabinet affairs for the ANC and chairs most Cabinet meetings, alternating with De Klerk. He has adopted a hands-on approach to the RDP, shoring up minister Jay Naidoo with the necessary political clout to get departments moving.
“We have to systematically now complete the package — – then the question of succession will no longer be an issue,” an insider said.
Concerns include dealing with perceptions of Mbeki being weak and tardy. Big business — whose attitudes are often voiced by the NP and DP — question his credentials. Others say he is efficient, but stretched too thin.
An astute politician well-schooled in the Byzantine politics of the ANC in exile, Mbeki likes to keep channels open to influential players and tendencies within the ANC. This is often interpreted as an expedient wooing of factions. He is also criticised for pushing people for Cabinet posts because they are allies, rather than the best person for the job.
Some within the ANC say he lacks charisma, though dealing with this will be an issue for his image-builders. Since November, he has been campaigning in KwaZulu- Natal, addressing rallies and small community meetings, in a bid to carve an image as a man of the people.
“You can’t reinvent Mandela, who is in a class of his own. But we do need a leader who inspires the same kind of trust and confidence that he will take the country forward,” said a source.
The issue of what happens after Mandela has been discussed within the South African Communist Party. At this stage, it appears the party will not engage in campaigning around a candidate. “We’re not a feudal organisation. We don’t want to make crown princes. We are committed to building a collective leadership,” a source said.
In the event of Mandela’s sudden death, Mbeki would become acting president. The ANC’s national working committee would come up with proposals to be confirmed by a meeting of the national executive committee. It would be up to Parliament to vote for a new president within 30 days of the vacancy arising.