A new generation of central bankers, unfamiliar with the perils of high inflation, could prompt a new rush for the security of gold if the present obsession with paper money turns sour, warns Dan Atkinson in London
THE scramble out of gold by the world’s central banks is not novel. We have sat through this film before. We know how it ends.
Ten minutes after a thrusting new generation of central bank executives declares that gold is obsolete, something blows world money markets apart and everybody wants a few Krugers or kilo-bars, including the same central bankers, now shamefacedly wasting our money trying to buy back what they gave away.
By this stage, all the half-witted analysts and commentators who applauded the gold sales will have developed chronic amnesia. They will be thundering about the fundamental insecurity of paper money and denouncing the Weimar mentality of the new inflation.
And there will be new inflation. There always is.
Imagine a person (probably male) who, after years of overdrafts and hate mail from his credit card people, gets his act together (often assisted by someone female) and lives within his means. Fine. He will never stray again.
But can you imagine a banking system that automatically ranks his grandchildren in the same low-risk category and refuses even to consider securing loans to them against any asset?
The central bank garage sales, far from ushering in a new inflation-free age, are quite likely to prove the turning point in the inflation/disinflation cycle. Put together a fresh generation of central bankers, oblivious of the great inflation of 20 years ago, with a fresh generation of Maastricht-battered European politicians elected on pro-jobs platforms, and wave goodbye to the manic pursuit of zero inflation.
Hurray to that. But when lending constraints are being loosened the prudent lender casts around for some security for his loan. And everybody who carries money is a lender, making an interest-free loan to the government.
Paper currency is, in some mysterious way, presumed to be more “progressive” than “reactionary” bullion. Really? Legal tender is the ultimate insider-trader instrument.
Not only do the big boys (especially governments) cash out well ahead of the herd, the herd is effectively prevented from cashing out at all. So have a salt cellar handy when next you hear some analyst “explain” that gold is redundant because politicians have stopped fiddling with their currencies.
Note that the fiddling of the euro is now of huge proportions.
Enjoy the expansionist era now dawning. But keep a beady eye on the family gold.