Judging by his failure to deliver on past promises, Kenya’s president will no longer find many willing believers, writes Stephen Buckley from Nairobi
A SERIES of dramatic moves last week by Kenya’s government gave the appearance that President Daniel arap Moi is backing down in the face of protests for constitutional and other legal reforms.
But opposition activists and politicians say that the government’s new enthusiasm for reform stems from a desire to strangle, not strengthen, calls for change.
Moi, in power since 1978, met with prominent clergy, promised to meet opposition leaders this week, agreed to ease tough laws concerning public rallies and said he plans to create a commission on constitutional reform.
The actions “are welcome, but they are piecemeal and half-baked”, said the Reverend Timothy Njoya, a Presbyterian minister at the forefront of the reform movement. “They are still not dealing with the presidency. As long as he maintains the kind of power that he does, changing of laws doesn’t matter.”
Moi, under whose authoritarian rule Kenya has become one of the poorest and most corrupt societies in sub-Saharan Africa, has a history of political manoeuvring and manipulation that makes it hard to determine whether he truly has embraced constitutional reforms. He has long been a master of subverting the opposition with just enough concessions to cool protests and tamp down the fears of foreign investors and diplomats.
Moi has, for example, declared support for constitutional reforms before. In 1995, he promised a thorough review of the country’s governing document, only to change his mind months later.
Such memories are seared into the collective psyche of the reform movement, and its leaders say they are determined not to be so easily pacified this time.
Nonetheless, Moi’s opponents express fear that his actions this week will smother public enthusiasm for protests planned throughout the country in the next month. The demonstrations, including a national strike and a day of prayer, will follow a series of protests that have resulted in at least 11 deaths, as security forces have put down the unrest with sometimes brutal force.
In addition, reform movement leaders stepped up their call last week to disrupt elections to be held this year. They said they plan to ensure that even if a vote occurs, the turnout will be too low to make it legitimate.
Moi is “trying to make the protests meaningless”, said Richard Leakey, the famed paleontologist and conservationist who has become a leading political activist in Kenya during the past two years. “It’s going to be tough for [the reform movement] to figure out how not to lose the initiative.”
Concerning Moi’s proposed reforms, he added: “I don’t think it’s an entire sham. The question is just how deep it goes.”
Reform movement leaders say their scepticism is justified. They note, for example, that of the 17 clergymen with whom Moi met early last week, only three are known as outspoken critics of the regime.
A number of those present have long been solid supporters of the president.
Leaders of the reform movement are also concerned about this week’s planned meeting between Moi and opposition leaders. The meeting was scheduled after Michael Kinjana Wamalwa, the official opposition leader, and Moi got together for about 15 minutes last week.
Wamalwa has supported the call for constitutional reforms, but has been stained with accusations of wrongdoing in connection with two major financial scandals in the past few years.
The planned meeting also makes activists nervous because the opposition in Kenya is among the most fractious in Africa. The reform movement – a coalition of clergymen, opposition politicians and human rights activists – has gained momentum in recent weeks in part because the parties have maintained a fragile unity.
Would-be reformers such as Gibson Kamau Kuria, a leading human rights lawyer, and Njoya, himself beaten bloody by security forces two weeks ago, say Moi is seeking to set opposition politicians against the clergy and human rights activists.
“If Moi pushes out the intellectuals, he will gain the upper hand again,” Njoya said, sitting in his living-room across from a painting of Daniel in the lion’s den. “We are pulling the carpet from under his feet.” – The Washington Post