Chiara Carter
Northern Cape Premier Manne Dipico is convinced the African National Congress is positioned to wrest coloured votes from the New National Party and win the province outright in the coming elections.
The province’s election race is likely to be closely watched because it is one of few where the government could change hands – from the ANC to the NNP or a coalition.
The 1994 elections saw Northern Cape voters return a “hung legislature” with 15 ANC representatives, 12 from the National Party, one from the Democratic Party and two from the Freedom Front.
The local government elections the following year saw the ANC edge slightly ahead, winning about 52% of the vote.
Last year, pundits predicted that the Northern Cape would again experience a neck-and-neck race between the ANC and the NNP, with the key variables being voter apathy and the choices made by coloured voters who make up more than half the population.
However, recent polls indicated the ANC was edging ahead in the race for support – in part a reflection less of growing support for the ANC than the countrywide declining fortunes of the NNP. Dipico dismisses the NNP’s chance of arresting its decline as “slim” despite the NNP now having a coloured leader in the region.
“Trends show we are making gains and now have about 56% support. All we need now is hard work to get voters to the polls,” said Dipico.
He does not expect the ANC to end up in opposition. Instead, Dipico is hopeful that another “hung parliament” would see the smaller parties such as the FF and the DP again opt to work with the ANC. Such a move would fly in the face of talks about opposition parties uniting against the ANC. However, Dipico says the experience of co-operation might well count to sway the parties towards continuing to work with the ANC in the province.
The ANC is implementing a “reach the people” strategy – an approach which means the party has “gone back to basics” and is trying to meet face-to- face with potential voters.
Dipico says getting voters to the polls is a major challenge for all parties. However, it might be less of a task in the Northern Cape than elsewhere if a recent Markinor survey is anything to go by. Statistics released last month indicated that the region had a relatively high number of people likely to register (89%).
The province also had one of the highest numbers of people likely to vote, with more than half the electorate (56%) likely to go to the polls and only 18% uncertain or unlikely to cast their vote. These projections fly in the face of predictions of apathy among coloured voters.
Dipico says the ANC in the region is very aware of the issue of race – or as he puts it the “national question”. Its nominations list – the first to be completed – reflects the region’s composition and five out of the six regional leaders in the Northern Cape are coloured.
He dismisses claims that a power struggle within the ANC last year ran along racial faultlines. The row which saw the airing of a string of extraordinary allegations against both Dipico and his rivals fizzled out after the tensions were discussed by provincial party structures and the ANC’s national leadership.
Dipico is convinced the party is now united and differences have been overcome. While he admits there have been failures on the part of the government, he is also confident that there are successes that the ANC can report.