With strong support from traditional leaders, the UDM is becoming a force to be reckoned with in the Eastern Cape, reports Chiara Carter
Five chiefs have made themselves available for nomination by the United Democratic Movement – a move likely to bolster support for the party which appears poised to become the official opposition in the Eastern Cape and an important player in opposition politics nationally.
The UDM is finalising the candidate list from its heartland, the Eastern Cape, this weekend. Regional representative Johan Malherbe confirmed five senior chiefs were available for nomination. They are understood to include Khulisile Nota and UDM chair Dumisani Gwadiso.
The nominations are a counterpoint to those made by the African National Congress, which, controversially, put forward the names of several traditional leaders on its list.
ANC nominees included Mwelo Nonkonyana, the Congress of Traditional Leaders of South Africa (Contralesa) national organiser and chair of the Eastern Cape House of Traditional Leaders, and Contralesa president and ANC MP Chief Phatekile Holomisa, who was nominated as a national MP by his region.
Malherbe said the UDM has the allegiance of about 20 of the 25 most senior traditional leaders in the province. If true, this would mean the party could count on considerable support from people living in areas ruled by these leaders.
Malherbe could not comment on speculation that the UDM’s supporters included George and Ngangomhlaba Matanzima, brothers of former Transkei ruler Kaiser Matanzima.
Phatekile Holomisa, a nephew of UDM leader General Bantu Holomisa, admitted that many chiefs had welcomed the UDM but said some still wanted to support the ANC.
The nomination of chiefs for political office has sparked considerable debate and Phatekile Holomisa said Contralesa’s national executive committee would meet in Johannesburg next month to discuss the role of traditional leaders in political parties.
Contralesa’s constitution allows members to join political parties provided it is not detrimental to the institution of traditional leadership.
Phatekile Holomisa said ideally traditional leaders would remain above party politics, but it was a question of “strategy” for chiefs – how they could best achieve their objectives from political parties.
Phatekile Holomisa sharply criticised his own party, the ANC, for failing to satisfy traditional leaders and said many chiefs were welcoming the UDM in the Transkei and elsewhere.
He said despite promises, the government had still not defined the constitutional role of traditional leaders.
A promised second meeting between Contralesa and key government ministers had not materialised.
“Chiefs are the only people on the government payroll who have not got an increment since 1993,” Phatekile Holomisa said.
He added that one reason for the warm response to the UDM was because the party showed greater respect for traditional customs.
Besides soliciting the support of traditional leaders, the UDM has been wooing former homeland ministers and senior civil servants in the Transkei and Ciskei.
They have also drawn support from disaffected members of other parties such as the discredited Butterworth councillors and a grouping of Pan Africanist Congress supporters who do not recognise the leadership of Stanley Mogoba.
The UDM now has 310 branches – each consisting of at least 50 members – in the Eastern Cape. The largest branch, Umtata Central, boasts 230 members.
National and regional leaders have begun their election campaign and Bantu Holomisa recently spoke at a string of meetings in the region.
While analysts have been speculating that Bantu Holomisa has failed to fully capitalise on his initial popularity when he was expelled from the ANC in 1996, statistics released this week by the Opinion 99 poll conducted by Markinor and the Institute for Democracy in South Africa indicated that the UDM was on course to become the biggest opposition party in the Eastern Cape.
A survey conducted in October/ November last year found the UDM would get 7% of votes as opposed to 4% going to both the National Party and the Democratic Party, and 3% to the PAC in the Eastern Cape.
The survey revealed that opposition parties would get the support of one in five voters (21%), but the ANC remained the favourite and was likely to get a whopping 67% of votes in the province.
While Bantu Holomisa was viewed positively by many Eastern Cape voters, he was rated at just more than four out of a hypothetical 10, whereas potential voters rated Deputy President Thabo Mbeki at 6,8 and President Nelson Mandela at 8,2.
The same voters took a dim view of the provincial government with fewer than four out of 10 saying Premier Makhenkesi Stofile was doing a good job. Six out of 10 voters expected the economy to improve.
Previous surveys by a range of pollsters placed UDM national support somewhere between 3% and 9%, while political analysts have predicted about 5% support in the Eastern Cape and a lower percentage in national elections. The Opinion 99 figures placed UDM support in Gauteng, Western Cape, North-West and Mpumalanga at 4%.
Still to unfold in the Eastern Cape is the “Mandela factor”. The ANC is likely to capitalise on Mandela’s stature and use him to campaign in his home province.
The ANC’s campaign approach was indicated by Stofile during his opening address to the regional legislature earlier this month.
Stofile said: “The plight of many MaDlaminis and Siphos have improved in significant ways. For the first time ever, they now have access to clean drinking water, electricity, clinics, free health care, telecommunication and primary school nutrition programmes. So, if you want to know how life has been for the past four years since democracy, ask those who have never had any meaningful life under apartheid – ask the villagers, ask the people.”
He said that since 1994, 267 new schools, 32 rural clinics and more than 1 000 school toilets and 123 000 houses have been built.