Gavin Evans English Premier League
Ho-hum. Last week I was banging on about the growing class divisions within the Premiership and what happens? Lowly Watford beats lofty Liverpool at Anfield and, even more embarrassing, a back-alley Sunderland holds Arsenal. So what does that prove? Absolutely nothing, actually. Forget the early season niggles; the general rule holds that the more you spend, the more you’ll win.
On the other hand, a few minutes ago, Bill, our electricity man and a certifiable Bournmouth fan (“the only fan-owned club in all the leagues”) popped around to sell me something and inform me that the gap between the first and second divisions is actually shrinking, mainly due to free transfers from above. It makes sense: the Premiership attracts all the serious investment, which means that everyone in the lower leagues – give or take the odd Fulham ego-investment case – shares a common status as a struggler.
But no one doubts that the gulf between the Premiership and the rest is becoming harder to bridge. The obvious reasons may relate to television money and to a lesser extent gate receipts, which together account for around 60% of revenues. The same applies within the Premier League and the odd Watford success won’t change the facts. Here the growing division has a great deal to do with the relationship between investment and brand marketing. Its all about selling the product as far and wide as you possibly can, and there are only a handful of clubs which can manage that on the scale required to hold the fort in Britain, secure bridgeheads in Europe, and invade further afield.
The reason Manchester send their men to do business in China and Australia, not to forget Brazil, has nothing to do with their competitive drive or missionary zeal, and everything to do with selling a product to new markets.
They want the Chinese equivalents of Louis Karpas to be choosing from their collection of Manchester strips to wear to bed each night and convincing themselves that they really do have a stake in the future of the Reds.
If there’s an exception to disprove the rule, it’s Newcastle United, where there’s an inverse relation between money and success.
I assume they’ll straighten out against lowly Wimbledon on Saturday, even without the suspended Alan Shearer, but three losses at a trot and the spill-over from the hatred between Shearer and Ruud Gullit becoming ever more palpable, something has to give soon, and the odds makers are placing their money on the Dutchman. “There’s a real lack of commitment,” Gullit remarked following his side’s 4-2 defeat against lowly Southampton. “They don’t believe in themselves and it has nothing to do with me.” Really?
But for the rest, we can expect the general idea to hold that once the season gets going and the injuries start mounting, the clubs that can afford to invest in depth, will pull ahead. Even if they’ve held your head up in the early games – like poor old Charlton last season – they’ll start to flounder.
Perhaps the best example is the paradox of upper-middle ranking Aston Villa: the better they do now, the more the principal will ultimately be confirmed. Last season they kept it up for half a year, making the pundits look foolish, until they suddenly went whoosh, and ended up fifth. At the time of writing they’re unbeaten and talking boldly about getting it right this time, but it won’t happen.
And one can probably say much the same about David O’Leary’s over-confident Leeds side, who managed to go down 2-0 to an off- colour Manchester last weekend, despite outplaying them for most of the game, and certainly, on current form, Liverpool too.
As Leicester City’s Robbie Savage put it after his side held Chelsea to a draw last week: “As far as we are concerned it’s either Manchester United or Arsenal.” Surely Chelsea too? “We don’t think they have a chance of the championship,” he replied.
Incidentally, in this sense England is no different from, say, Italy (Milan and Juventus), Spain (Barcelona and Real), Holland (PSV and Ajax), Portugal (Poro and Benfica) and of course Scotland.
Anyway, what does the weekend hold? Having written off Chelsea and Villa already, I fancy Vialli’s mercenaries at home to put the first dent in the Birmingham side’s fender, probably by a single goal. And at the other side of the class division, Bradford has looked comfortable so far, but I still expect a pepped-up Watford to pip them by a goal on home turf. After their embarrassment against Watford, Liverpool away may well do no better than draw against Middlesborough, while I won’t be at all surprised if Tottenham suffer their second defeat away to Sheffield. And as I said, Newcastle United at St James Park must be good for a goal to spare against Wimbledon.
But the major weekend attraction sees Arsenal hosting Manchester on Sunday. The Gunners may suffer from the Sunderland- administered injuries to Emmanuel Petit and Dennis Bergkamp, even though this may be balanced by the Manchester machine’s temporary shortcomings, like Roy Keane’s unsettling indecision about whether to renew his contract at the end of the season.
Arsenal’s home record is always exemplary, but this time they’ll do well to escape with a draw. So, come the start of the new week, Manchester should still be tops on goal average.