Howard Barrell
Relations between Rwanda and Uganda have worsened in recent days, endangering the alliance between the two countries that has driven the war against Laurent Kabila’s regime in the neighbouring Democratic Republic of Congo.
Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni is under growing domestic pressure to break with Rwanda, according to usually well- informed sources on the Great Lakes region.
The Ugandan People’s Defence Force is unhappy about continued co-operation with the Rwandan armed forces. A joint report into recent clashes between the Ugandan and Rwandan armies seems only to have inflamed relations.
Ugandan politicians are warning that Ugandan and Rwandan war aims in Congo are too different for the alliance to continue. There is also concern among Ugandan leaders that the country is beginning to lose aid from donors because of its involvement in the war in Congo.
Popular discontent in Uganda is growing over the loss of lives and the cost of the country’s involvement in the war. And the Ugandan press is now carrying reports alleging attacks on Ugandan citizens in the streets of the Rwandan capital, Kigali.
The concern among South African officials and other peacemakers in the Great Lakes region is that, if the Uganda/Rwanda alliance breaks up, this will worsen relations between the different rebel factions fighting Kabila, further complicate an already fraught situation and undermine the search for peace there.
Uganda and Rwanda support different factions of the Congolese Rally for Democracy (RCD), operating in eastern Congo. Uganda also backs a separate rebel group operating in the north of the country, led by Jean-Pierre Bemba, a businessman once loyal to the former dictator, Mobutu Sese Seko.
This week senior South African official sources said that they were aware of tensions in the Ugandan/ Rwandan relationship and of reports of a worsening in relations.
“But at this second – bearing in mind that things can change very quickly around the Great Lakes – I am not independently aware of a sudden deterioration,” said one source.
“Basically,” said another, “the problem is that Uganda, which sees itself as big brother, is upset because little brother Rwanda is not falling in with its plans.”
Over four days from August 14, Rwandan and Ugandan troops in Kisangani in east- central Congo engaged in fierce battles, apparently on behalf of the different RCD factions they support. About 200 Ugandan and 100 Rwandan soldiers died.
On August 17, Museveni and Rwanda’s Deputy President Paul Kagame drew on their long-standing friendship and signed a ceasefire agreement in Mweya.
Two weeks after the clashes in Kisangani, apparently seeking to appease domestic pressure on him to take a firm stand, Museveni told a closed session of the Ugandan Parliament that he had warned Kagame of a full-scale war against Rwanda if the ceasefire agreement signed after the Kisangani battles was not adhered to.
Museveni reportedly said: “If Rwanda continues with its attacks, the Ugandan People’s Defence Force will reply with promptness and a double-barrelled, lightning attack.”
Kagame took a softer line in a similar address to Rwandan political leaders. He blamed Ernest Wamba dia Wamba, leader of the Ugandan-backed faction of the RCD, for creating “misunderstandings” between the different armies in Kisangani.
An inquiry into the Kisangani battles, set up by the two leaders, has just been reported. The report is being kept secret in both countries, but the Ugandan military are reportedly upset at selective leaks from the Rwandan side which appear to put Uganda in a bad light.
On September 18 Museveni met in Kampala with Burundi’s President, Pierre Buyoya, evidently in an attempt to find a way through the current tensions with Rwanda.