Few South Africans look capable of ending the foreign domination in the Comrades
Michael Finch
It seems ironic that on a day when the Comrades Marathon is experiencing its finest hour with its largest entry ever, chances of a South African victory on Youth Day (June 16) seem as unlikely as an empty medical tent.
A total of 24E505 runners will line up for the first seeded start seen at the Comrades (where the faster your qualifying time the further up the start chute you can begin), but the list of potential South African winners looks thin despite the offer of a gold bar worth R50E000 to the first South African across the line.
As in 1998, when Russians took four of the five top placings and five of the top 10, the Red Army seems set again to ruin local hopes.
On paper, defending “up” run champion Dmitri Grishine looks the best bet (if you can say that these days). Having broken Bruce Fordyce’s 10-year-old “up” record in 1998, Grishine hill-running abilities are legendary.
Firmly focused on victory and having trained in the mountains of southern Russia since March, Grishine’s ability lies not only in the speed of his legs but the mental intimidation he exerts over the field.
Ever since his debut win in 1996, Grishine seems to find strength and resolve over the last 12km that few others can match. Having run successive sub-four-minute kilometres up Polly Shorts in 1998, the tough 34-year-old set the new record of 5:26.25 to become only the second man to break 5:30 besides Fordyce.
Last year’s winner, Jaroslaw Janicki of Poland, does not look to be a factor.
Perhaps the best South African hope comes in the form of the diminutive Andrew Kelehe – a consistent top-five performer, but one who rarely takes the fight to the opposition and often relies on picking up where others have failed. With a runner-up spot last year, the 35- year-old policeman now faces the ominous jump from contender to winner.
Former South African marathon champion Zithulele Sinqe remains the biggest unknown factor. With the pedigree of a Grand National champion, Sinqe ran the fastest debut Comrades in 1997 when he finished fourth. But a refocused mind and a renewed hunger, make the 37-year-old a big danger. If injury doesn’t play a role, Sinqe may be South Africa’s saving grace.
Former winner Charl Mattheus also remains an unknown quantity, but after surgery to his Achilles tendon last year, the 1997 champion is not regarded as a major threat for honours and will do well to finish among the top 10.
Also watch for the consistent Lucas Matlala (3rd last year), Walter Nkosi (6th) and two-time gold medallist Sarel Ackerman.
Among the women, Comrades queen Frith van der Merwe looks unstoppable. Although playing down her chances, Van der Merwe has dominated the Gauteng ultra circuit in recent months and looks certain to revisit her glory days when she established new records for both “up” and “down” runs on her way to three wins. If there is anybody who can rekindle local pride it is Van der Merwe.
Her closest competition will come from German Maria Bak, the winner in 1995 who has just completed a two-year drug ban, defending champion Birgit Lennartz and nuggety KwaZulu- Natalian Grace de Oliveira. Also watch for Russians Valentina Shatyayeva and Marina Bychkova.
Of the entrants an amazing 8E492 novices will start, most looking to take advantage of the extra hour added on to the normal 11-hour cut-off. Make no mistake, with many of the potential 12- hour runners having qualified with marathon times in excess of five hours, there will be a huge failure rate on the day.
Many will have simply just sneaked under the 5:30 marathon mark and, like many in the past, believe that with a little mind power and good luck, Comrades glory will be theirs. What they forget is how long almost 90km of running is. Whether you have an extra hour or two hours, many will find the distance simply too far.
Among the many innovations brought into the 75th running of the event is the new Bill Rowan medal for runners who finish in under nine hours.
Rowan, the winner of the first race in 1921, won the first event on dusty roads in 8:59. The idea of having a new medal was pushed along by former stars like nine-time winner Fordyce and should help in providing the pack with extra motivation.
What remains is whether the Comrades Marathon Association decides to retain the new nine-hour medal and 12-hour cut-off in 2001.
The enormity of the extra logistics and expense of that last hour will be added up only next month, and only then will the Comrades organising committee decide on whether to retain the new medal or the extra hour.
Michael Finch is editor of Runner’s World magazine