ELLIS MNYANDU AND OWN CORRESPONDENT, Johannesburg | Wednesday
ANALYSTS have raised the spectre of a gloomy Christmas for South African consumers and retailers if commercial banks raise their prime lending rates in tandem with the Reserve Bank’s repo rate hike.
Evan Walker, a retail sector analyst at Standard Equities, said many retailers would take a knock in sales for the Christmas holiday period if commercial banks raised interest rates after the Reserve Bank hiked the repo rate – the rate at which it lends money to banks – to 12% from 11.75%.
But any possible hike in commercial rates now would not affect forecasts of an earnings rebound early in 2001 based on expectations of a rate cut in the first quarter of next year, in a sector whose earnings growth has been dented by weak consumer demand since 1998, he said.
”The spectre of higher interest rates is again with us and it’s just going to put a further restraint on consumer confidence just when many retailers are struggling,” said Walker.
”I am not bullish looking ahead. A rise in interest rates would put a dampener on consumer spirits for Christmas.”
Another retail analyst said he was concerned the Reserve Bank’s move possibly signalled an upward tick in interest rates over the short-to-medium term if the global oil price surge did not abate and the rand continued to weaken – fuelling inflationary fears.
Among the retail shares to come under pressure was South Africa’s second biggest furniture retailer Ellerine Holdings, which reported flat earnings in the 12 months to August 31.
Its shares traded off 4.35% at R22.00 after earlier hitting a new 12-month low of R21.50. Its slump was mirrored by other counters like Truworths, Pepkor and retail wholesaler Metcash.
In another negative development for the retail sector, investment house Merrill Lynch said it had recommended a ”sell” on the Johannesburg bourse’s retail heavyweight stocks of Truworths, Pepkor and Metcash. It also cut retail chain Pick ‘n Pay to neutral from buy. But it upgraded Ellerine to buy from neutral. – Reuters