/ 22 December 2000

‘Light at end of emigration tunnel’

OWN CORRESPONDENT, Cape Town | Thursday

APPROXIMATELY a fifth, or 16%, of South African graduates want to leave the country either permanently or only for a few years, a recently published Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC) study has found, Die Burger newspaper reports.

Only one third of the people, who are planning to go overseas, are contemplating emigrating.

Senior HSRC researcher, Yvonne Shapiro said The Graduate 2000 study, which canvassed more than 7000 people aged between 20 and 65, showed there was a light at the end of the emigration tunnel, the newspaper said.

“The exodus of experts is not as high as we initially thought. Most graduates leaving the country plan to return. Their expertise is therefore not lost forever,” she said.

Eighty two percent of the respondents said they were not intent on seeking even temporary employment outside South Africa and nearly a third stated categorically they would settle permanently in South Africa.

The well-timed research, which comes shortly after the publication of a book on South African emigration patterns by Dr Johann van Rooyen, is seen as one of the first reliable indications of the extent of the exodus of South African expertise.

In his book, The New Great Trek: The Story of South Africa’s White Exodus, Van Rooyen claims that many more South Africans are emigrating than official figures actually reflect.

The HSRC study revealed that just over half (52.6%) of respondents who wanted to go overseas, indicated they simply wanted to spread their wings for a while. In total, 40.3% intend seeking temporary work, and another 12.3% wish to study. On the other hand, 34.4% of the respondents who said they are going overseas, intend staying there permanently.

Of those proposing to look for work overseas, only 12% of them believe that they will work in a field different to that in which they are trained.

Approximately 40% of respondents who indicated they intended settling overseas were not sure how long they would stay. A third believed they would return to South Africa within five years.

Van Rooyen describes the increasing emigration of white South Africans as a “very alarming aspect” of the country’s transition to democracy. He regards the wholesale emigration as a new Great Trek which is threatening to turn into a flood.

According to Van Rooyen’s book, the number of emigrants is at least twice as high as the official figures of 8200 for 1998 and the approximately 9000 of 1999.

He claims official figures are unreliable because many people don’t tell the authorities they are emigrating, preferring to say they are only going overseas temporarily.