GHANA, while poised to consolidate its democracy with the first transfer of power from one civilian president to another since independence, will remain beset by economic woes for some time to come, analysts say.
Ghanaians voted this week to elect a successor to President Jerry Rawlings, who must step down after ruling the country, once Africa’s richest colony, for nearly two decades.
It is the second round of elections which three weeks ago revealed a sea change in Ghanaian politics as the main opposition swept ahead of Rawlings’ National Democratic Congress (NDC) in parliament and its presidential candidate fell just short of winning an outright victory.
The strong opposition showing was seen as an indictment of the Rawlings legacy associated with human rights abuses, corruption and economic mismanagement.
Moreover, if on the back of the parliamentary gains the opposition presidential candidate, John Kufuor, wins, he will be in a position to don a brand new democratic mantle and take up a clean slate.
Emmanuel Aning, a public policy analyst at the Institute of Economic Affairs, said: “This is going to be a major transition if it is successful … the first major step towards consolidating the democratic process.”
However, a bleak economic outlook awaits Kufuor – or Rawlings’ chosen successor John Atta Mills – in the short and medium term, most observers believe.
Rawlings, in power since 1981 as military or civilian leader, signed on to western-mandated reforms in 1986, agreeing to turn the state-controlled economy established under founding father Kwame Nkrumah’s “African socialism” into a market economy.
The reforms have put a squeeze on finances, while attempts to reduce social fallout have been cost-intensive, especially during this election year, forcing heavy domestic borrowing.
External events have exacerbated things this year, notably sharp drops in world prices for Ghana’s top two foreign exchange earners, gold and cocoa, and a more than doubling of the price of oil.
A rapidly weakening cedi – which has lost more than half its value in the past year – and the surge in oil prices are fanning inflation. As a result, the purchasing power of the average Ghanaian, living on barely more than a dollar a day, has decreased dramatically.
Incumbent Communication Minister John Mahama admitted that “the economy has not helped the NDC,” but warned that campaign promises by either side would be hard to keep.
The opposition promised “everything from free health care to free education to jobs for everybody,” Mahama said, adding: “Looking at the realities of the economy, that cannot be achieved in the short to medium term.” – AFP