AIDS in South Africa – which claimed about 200_000 lives in 2000 – and urbanisation have nearly halved the country?s growth rate between 1996 and 2006, according to a new report.
The combination of the two factors reduced annual population growth to about 1.35%, said Carl van Aardt of the Bureau of Market Research.
Aids and urbanisation “are the two most important factors driving the population growth down,” Van Aardt said. “Even the most conservative estimates show substantial numbers of people dying, and Aids and urbanisation have impacted on fertility.?
The bureau, based at the University of South Africa in Pretoria, this week released a report analysing South Africa’s population growth.
Van Aardt said the bureau calculated South Africa’s current population at 45.3m, projected to rise to about 48m in 2006. The 1.35% projection covers the decade from 1996 to 2006.
After 2011, projections show the population increasing by less than half a percent a year, he said. The population for 2011 is projected at about 49.8m and by 2016 the bureau expects it to reach 50.9m.
hese projections are lower than those of the Development Bank of South Africa (DBSA) and the Institute for Futures Research, which predict a population growth of around two percent a year.
The highest growth among the black population is expected in the Western Cape and the industrial province of Gauteng is projected to be the province with the biggest increase in white numbers.
The DBSA late last year said South Africa’s population growth could drop by 16m over a period of 30 years because of HIV and Aids.
The US Census Bureau predicted last year that life expectancy in Aids-stricken countries could plunge to around 30 by the end of the decade.
ZA*NOW
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