JASPREET KINDRA, Johannesburg | Friday
THE South African government is currently redrafting its strategy on the Zimbabwean crisis, with intelligence sources reporting that President Robert Mugabe is apparently plagued with paranoid delusions about attempts to oust him.
Various government departments have been involved in a series of workshops and strategising sessions on the crisis over the past few weeks in preparation for a presidential briefing on the crisis, in which a more realistic view will be presented on its effect on South Africa.
Sources attending the sessions said while it was felt that the governments stance has not been wrong, it had been receiving inadequate information from the intelligence authorities.
The South African government and President Thabo Mbeki have come under heavy criticism from the world community for not condemning Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe.
It has been explicitly spelled out in the sessions between the various departments that the clampdown on the press, the judiciary and the deterioration of the rule of law are the most important factors adversely affecting the economic crisis in Zimbabwe.
The concerns were heightened this week when the Mugabe-led regime used its majority to bulldoze the legislature to pass controversial legislation blocking independent radio and television.
Mugabes leadership of Zanu-PF has been identified as a problem.
It has also emerged in these sessions that Mugabe, whose popularity has waned among members of his party, is seeking a graceful departure from politics. Sources said Mugabe wants to leave after having established a perception that he has contributed constructively to the land reform process in Zimbabwe.
In the light of that information, the South African government is expected to adopt an approach focusing on a post-Mugabe scenario in Zimbabwe rather than a post-Zanu-PF one.
According to sources, it has been suggested that to help Mugabe achieve his objective of attaining some land reform targets, South Africa will have to play a more proactive role in mobilising financial aid for Zimbabwe from the European Union and other world bodies.
Sources say foreign exchange reserves in the hands of Zimbabwean businesses are expected to dry up in the next two months. The country has a parallel currency economy. It is believed that the Zimbabwean dollar is still overvalued by 56%. The countrys growth rate has plunged from -5,5% in 1999 to -10% this year.
The government departments have also been advised that Zimbabwe will be facing a food crisis in the next two months when its stock of maize – the countrys staple diet – is expected to be depleted. However, conservative estimates are that maize supplies will run out next month.
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