The Central Intelligence Agency warned of a ”pretty high” risk of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein using weapons of mass destruction in the event of a US attack, as key UN members edged closer to agreement on a new resolution on Iraq.
But the CIA also told the Senate Intelligence Committee that if the Iraqi president were left alone the risks of him using chemical or biological weapons (CBW) were low.
US President George Bush, ratcheting up the war rhetoric in a speech in Knoxville, Tennessee, meanwhile threatened that ”the full force and fury of the United States military will be unleashed” if Iraq does not disarm. ”And make no mistake about it, we will prevail,” he said.
Baghdad at the moment ”appears to be drawing a line short of conducting terrorist attacks with conventional or CBW against the United States,” CIA director George Tenet said in a letter committee chairman Bob Graham made public on Tuesday. But he warned this Iraqi approach could undergo a reevaluation if Saddam were to conclude he was about to lose power or even his life.
”Should Saddam conclude that a US-led attack could no longer be deterred, he probably would become much less constrained in adopting terrorist actions. ”Saddam might decide that the extreme step of assisting Islamist terrorists in conducting a WMD (weapons of mass destruction) attack against the United States would be his last chance to exact vengeance by taking a large number of victims with him,” Tenet warned.
Tenet also declassified a portion of a secret briefing given to members of the committee by a senior intelligence official on October 2, in which the official was asked about the chances of the Iraqi leader lashing out with biological or chemical weapons. These chances were ”pretty high,” the official said. At the same time, the official said that if the Iraqi leader did not feel threatened, the likelihood of him using weapons of mass destruction ”given the conditions we understand now … would be low.”
US Secretary of State Colin Powell said for his part on Tuesday that key United Nations members had edged closer to agreement on Iraq. Powell said he was in intense talks with French and Russian counterparts over their resistance to including the immediate threat of force against Iraq in a UN Security Council resolution.
”The Iraqis are not going to do anything unless there is pressure,” Powell said. ”It would be better for this pressure to be contained in one resolution.”
”I’m in constant contact with my French colleague, my Russian colleague,” Powell said. ”We are trying to see if there is a way to resolve this difference of view.”
Russia, which along with the US, Britain, China and France, are the five veto-wielding permanent members of the UN Security Council, said on Tuesday it was ready to support a new UN resolution that would put teeth in new weapons inspections. Russia’s announcement came one day after British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw said London might also be prepared to accept a French proposal for a two-stage UN resolution.
In contrast to Washington’s wish for an all-in-one text, France has proposed two separate UN resolutions — one setting out tough conditions for Iraqi cooperation with weapons inspectors and, if necessary, another threatening force if those conditions are not met.
The moves by both Moscow and London signal indicate key UN powers were heading toward a compromise that could avert US threats to act alone against Iraq despite strong global opposition. Any such compromise is due to be discussed on Friday during talks in Moscow between Russian President Vladimir Putin and British Prime Minister Tony Blair, who has served as a mediator between Washington and its critics.
In the US Congress, the House of Representatives could pass a resolution by Thursday allowing Bush to act unilaterally in case the UN fails to rid Iraq of weapons of mass destruction. The Senate is still debating competing resolutions on this matter.
Meanwhile, chief inspector Hans Blix said in a letter on Tuesday that Iraq agreed in talks last week to allow UN weapons inspectors to decide where and how to interview its citizens when they return after a near four-year break. The letter did not explicitly say the interviews could be conducted outside Iraq, as demanded by Bush in a televised speech on Monday.
But it did indicate a concession by the Iraqi authorities, who in the past insisted on monitoring conversations and sometimes intimidated interviewees. The 20-paragraph letter was addressed to Amir El-Sadi, an aide to President Saddam Hussein who led the Iraqi delegation to the talks, held in Vienna. In their letter, Blix and International Atomic Energy Agency director Mohammad el-Baradei also said that inspectors would be granted immediate, unconditional and unrestricted access to sites deemed sensitive in the past, including eight presidential palaces. – Sapa-AFP