Turkey’s secular establishment was bracing itself last night for sweeping changes as it became clear that a moderate Islamic party under threat of closure would win a landslide election victory and an outright majority in the national assembly.
Seat projections at 1am Turkish time showed that the Justice and Development party (AKP) won about 35% of the vote and would probably take around 364 seats in the 550-seat chamber.
The centre-left Republican People’s party (CHP) was running at about 19%, putting it on course for 177 seats. Only one other party, the rightwing True Path party, was close to breaching the 10% threshold parties must reach to win seats in the assembly. If it passes the crucial barrier it will reduce the AKP lead.
The AKP — whose leader, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, was disqualified as a candidate and cannot therefore become prime minister — will be the first Islamic party to come to power on its own since the foundation of the Turkish republic in 1923.
The size of the popular mandate, however, may only add to suspicions among traditional parties and the military establishment that the AKP is hiding its true Islamist agenda and intends to undermine the secular state.
Changes to the country’s constitution can be passed by the assembly — without the need for a referendum — if supporters muster 360 votes, around two-thirds of deputies.
Outside the AKP’s headquarters in Ankara last night crowds of chanting and cheering supporters filled the streets. Turkish pop music mingled with drumbeats and Arabic horns.
”It’s a wonderful result,” shouted one supporter. ”We are not an Islamist party, we are for democracy, good economics and social justice.
”We want to sort out the issue of headscarves which has been so divisive in Turkey. If girls can go to college in mini-skirts, they ought to be allowed to wear headscarves, too.”
Another supporter, Dr Dagestan Altug, said he hoped they would be able to sort out the confusion over who would be the next prime minister. ”It’s crazy not to be able to have Erdogan as prime minister, but if we have won about two-thirds of the seats in the assembly, then maybe we can change the regulations and let him in.”
An ebullient older man declared: ”England has nothing to worry about from our party. Long live Yusuf Islam, or Cat Stevens as you call him.”
The last Islamic-led coalition government, which had a far smaller majority, was forced out of office by Turkey’s generals in 1997.
AKP politicians, who deny it is a religiously motivated party and describe themselves as ”conservative democrats”, have sought to reassure Turkey’s allies that they re main pro-western, committed to Nato and pushing forward the country’s application for membership of the EU.
All three outgoing governing parties were losing heavily in a popular backlash against incumbent politicians who have presided over Turkey’s sharpest economic downturn for decades. The result also reflects growing resentment of centrist politicians who succeeded in hanging on to power for decades by deft coalition manoeuvrings.
The elections board banned Erdogan from standing as a candidate because of a jail sentence he served in 1999 for publicly reading a poem that a court said was anti-secular.
A prosecutor is also trying to close the AKP down, saying that Erdogan cannot lead the party because of that sentence.
Last week the president, Ahmet Necdet Sezer, insisted he would choose which deputy to appoint. But AKP politicians and Erdogan have said they will choose their leader, possibly Abdullah Gul, the AKP’s deputy chairman.
Even if the handover goes smoothly, the outgoing government, led by Bulent Ecevit, who has been prime minister five times, is likely to remain in office for some time. The supreme election board may not confirm the final result until November 10 and the national assembly will not convene for a further five days. – Guardian Unlimited (c) Guardian Newspapers Limited 2001