The United States had evidence the Pakistani military was preparing a nuclear strike against India in 1999, as the two nation’s armies were locked in a pitched battle in the disputed region of Kashmir, a former White House official acknowledged.
The revelations by Bruce Riedel, a former special assistant to former president Bill Clinton, also leave open the possibility these preparations were being made behind Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s back by then-armed forces commander General Pervez Musharraf.
In an academic paper prepared for the Centre for the Advanced Study of India at University of Pennsylvania, Riedel described Musharraf, the current Pakistani president, as a man who ”seemed to be in a different mould” than Sharif.
”He was said to be a hardliner on Kashmir, a man some feared was determined to humble India once and for all,” Riedel said.
The publication of the paper came amid a new flare-up of tensions between the perennial rivals which have fought two war over Kashmir since 1947.
Thirty-three people were killed early on Tuesday as three Muslim separatists opened fire on a civilian bus in the Himalayan region and then raided a nearby Indian army camp.
US Undersecretary of Defence Douglas Feith renewed warnings on Monday that the current standoff between the two countries could escalate into a nuclear war.
According to Riedel, the Clinton administration became seriously concerned about that prospect in June 1999, when India was trying to dislodge Pakistani troops from Kargil, where they took up positions after crossing the line of control separating Kashmir.
Washington feared that India could get tired of costly uphill attacks on well-fortified Pakistani positions and open a second front elsewhere, prompting Pakistan to resort to nuclear weapons, said the former official.
On July 3, ”more information developed about the escalating military situation in the area — disturbing evidence that the Pakistanis were preparing their nuclear arsenals for possible deployment,” Riedel recalled.
Both Pakistan and India conducted a series of nuclear tests in 1998.
Fears that the war over Kargil could turn nuclear heightened after the US administration learned about travel arrangements made by Sharif, who was coming to Washington to plead for Clinton’s help.
”He was bringing his wife and children with him to Washington, a possible indication that he was afraid he might not be able to go home if the summit failed or that the military was telling him to leave,” said Riedel.
As the US side prepared for talks, national security adviser Samuel Berger warned Clinton that this could be ”the most important foreign policy meeting of his presidency because the stakes could include nuclear war.”
The administration also had enlisted the assistance of Saudi Ambassador Prince Bandar bin Sultan, who rode with Sharif in a car from Dulles Airport to Washington trying to persuade him to withdraw Pakistani troops from Kargil.
This conversation revealed that the prime minister was hardly in full control of the situation.
”The PM was distraught, deeply worried about the direction the crisis was going toward disaster, but equally worried about his own hold on power and the threat from his military chiefs who were pressing for a tough stand,” Riedel wrote.
When Clinton asked him if he knew how advanced the threat of nuclear war really was, ”Sharif seemed taken aback” and denied issuing orders to get nuclear-tipped missiles ready, the former official recalled.
The upshot of the tense negotiations was Sharif’s agreement to order his troops to fall behind the line of control.
He fulfilled his promised. But his government was toppled in October 1999 in a coup led by Musharraf. – Sapa-AFP