The Southern African Development Community declined to get tough with Zimbabwe, report Wisani wa ka Ngobeni and Drew Forrest
President Robert Mugabe should be given “the benefit of the doubt” on his pledge to hold free and fair presidential elections, and the region could not use sanctions or threats to hold him to his word, a top foreign affairs official maintained this week.
Department of Foreign Affairs Deputy Director General for Africa Welile Nhlapo was part of the South African delegation to the Southern African Development Community (SADC) heads of government summit in Blantyre, Malawi, this week, where Mugabe again assured leaders of his honourable intentions. Nhlapo told the Mail & Guardian that the international community had no “genuine reason to believe the Zimbabwean government would renege on its commitments”.
At the summit, Mugabe undertook to hold free and fair elections, allow independent observers and journalists and investigate all political violence impartially.
Nhlapo’s comments follow expressions of deep scepticism by the Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) about Mugabe’s assurances, and scotched suggestions that South Africa and the region had toughened their stance in Blantyre.
Botswana’s President Festus Mogae also confirmed the region’s weak summit stance. “There is not much we can do If Mugabe reneges we’ll tell him we’re not happy. But he may tell us to go to hell,” said Mogae, who described Mugabe as “an honourable man”.
Cosatu said the latest promises meant as little as those Mugabe made at the commonwealth summit in Abuja last September and two subsequent SADC meetings. It expressed “disappointment” that regional leaders had taken them at face value.
Cosatu also reacted cautiously to news that a Bill banning trade union dissent had been delayed this week after the Zimbabwean parliament’s legal committee ruled it might be unconstitutional. “We have to be convinced there’s a real change on the ground,” said Cosatu’s Patrick Craven.
Nhlapo hit back at the federation, saying the organisation was not present at the SADC meeting and could not “assume things”.
He complained that certain media and analysts had turned the summit into “a bilateral meeting between South Africa and Zimbabwe People want to assign us a particular role, while we are part of regional mechanisms. We need to respect institutions we have created. The SADC is a serious institution.”
Nhlapo said: “Putting undue pressure on South Africa, as if we are the police in the region, is incorrect.”
The summit, Nhlapo said, was not called to discuss Zimbabwe. The Democratic Republic of Congo had asked the SADC for a meeting on its problems and Zimbabwe asked for a platform to brief regional leaders on its election.
Nhlapo attacked international organisations calling for regional sanctions if Zimbabwe failed to hold free and fair elections and continued to crack down on the media and judiciary. The SADC did not believe in threatening member states.
“What threats can you make to Zimbabwe? We can’t build a community with threats.” He said “colonisers” had complicated the land issue. “Now colonisers are being let off the hook and SADC is blamed.”
“We are interacting with the Zimbabwe government and President Thabo Mbeki communicates directly with Mugabe. If issues in Zimbabwe affect us, we discuss them with the Zimbabwean government, but some issues are the SADC’s responsibility.”
But University of the Witwatersrand foreign affairs specialist John Stremlau questioned whether South Africa and the region were powerless to act.
Stremlau said the election was “a forcing moment”. While South Africa’s softly-softly approach had past benefits in keeping the region on board, the costs of delay for example, in regard to the falling rand were mounting.
“Logic dictated” that regional leaders warn Mugabe they would not recognise an unfair election. A refusal to endorse the poll would make it impossible for Zimbabwe to raise the international donor finance essential for post- election economic restructuring.
Inflation in Zimbabwe is running at 103% and unemployment at 80%. Stremlau said 500 Zimbabweans were already thought to be crossing into South Africa daily.
A carrot-and-stick approach was needed to shake Zanu-PF leaders out of their siege mentality and overwhelming focus on keeping power. South Africa should mediate between Zimbabwe and the West, conveying the latter’s detailed offers of financial aid if the election was properly conducted.
Institute for Security Studies director Richard Cornwell insisted there was no chance the region would denounce an unfair poll, as its leaders feared the precedent could rebound on them. “Zambia’s election results are already before the courts.”
Economic sanctions would merely “accelerate the train smash”, and there was no provision for the expulsion of SADC members.
Complicating the issue were critical food shortages in Zimbabwe, threatening “a humanitarian crisis on a massive scale”, and the need for Mugabe’s co-operation in settling the Congo and Angolan crises, where there was “light at the end of the tunnel”.
South Africa needed Zimbabwe to accept food aid from international agencies it was attacking for their alleged sympathies with the opposition Movement for Democratic Change.
“Smart sanctions” targeting the private wealth of Zanu-PF top dogs should have been launched earlier. However such measures and even threats to expose assets held abroad, in stark contrast with “revolutionary austerity” could still have some effect.
Stremlau and Cornwell agree that there are signs of Mugabe’s increasing isolation in Zanu-PF and internal dissidence over the concentration of power in his hands.
“Mugabe is consolidating power over all party positions, from the central committee and polititburo to the provinces, and the party barons don’t like this,” Cornwell said. “Any future president could abuse them.”
He pointed out that the powerful Zanu-PF figure Eddison Zvogbo chaired the three-person parliamentary committee that had rejected the trade union Bill.
Cornwell suggested Mugabe’s apparently worsening health might serve as a trigger for a party rebellion. “It should be remembered the National Party only dared move against PW Botha when the Great Crocodile was wounded.”