South Africa’s rand held steady at the firmer end of its forecast short-term range in mid-morning trade on Monday, while bonds were little changed ahead of a possible interest rate hike, traders said.
South Africa’s Reserve Bank monetary policy committee (MPC), of which central bank governor Tito Mboweni is a member, meets later in the week to decide whether or not to change interest rates.
”We’re all waiting for Tito,” said one trader. The rand was trading at around 10,505 to the dollar at 0815 GMT compared to 10,55 in opening trade and barely changed from levels seen when Johannesburg traders headed home on Friday.
It pulsed to 10,44 at one point on Friday after a break through 10,50 triggered stop-losses and traders saw it holding in a 10 cents range between 10,50 and 10,60 on Monday.
Most said the market had already priced in a 50 basis point increase in interest rates, seen as an equal bet by economists after surprise surges in consumer and producer inflation and strong economic growth in the 2002 second quarter. Eleven of 21 economists polled by Reuters on Friday forecast the bank would leave its key repo rate unchanged at 12,50%, but said there was a risk of a 50 basis points rise.
Ten economists polled expected the repo rate to increase by between 50 and 100 basis points. The central bank has raised interest rates three times this year in an effort to stifle inflationary pressures from the rand’s plunge in 2001.
Bonds were little changed. The yield on the most traded R150, due 2005, was virtually unchanged from late Friday levels at 11,87%.
The benchmark R153, due 2010, dropped three basis
points to 11,70%. ”The long end should be relatively safe if there are any changes in interest rates, in the short end there could be sellers,” said one trader. – Reuters