There have been times over the past three years when the future of Ellis Park as a rugby venue was seriously questioned. Urban decay and the threat of violence had suffused the stadium to such an extent that relocation to Midrand and a ground-sharing scheme were both mooted.
And yet, if the positioning of sports stadia in salubrious areas were a prerequisite for large crowds, the English soccer premiership would be played before one man and his dog more often than not. The fact is that people will put up with virtually anything as long as their team is winning.
When the Springboks beat Australia at Ellis Park in August a full house went home feeling so good that a large proportion returned soon afterwards to watch the Lions play in the Currie Cup. Now their team is one point away from a semifinal spot and Louis Koen’s lifesaving last-minute penalty against the Pumas two months ago seems a lifetime ago.
Despite last week’s defeat against the Cheetahs and even without the injured Joe van Niekerk the Lions will be far too good for Western Province at Ellis Park on Saturday. They have a formidable pack of forwards, a wonderful flyhalf and a gifted three-quarter line that includes the find of the season in Jacque Fourie at fullback.
Province are pinning their hopes on some positional changes. Extremely belatedly Gert Smal looks set to drop Chris Rossouw and move Werner Greeff to flyhalf. In one fell swoop that may restore the reputations of a few outside backs.
Rossouw has based his play on Stephen Larkham, but crucially he has not been taking the hits that are an integral part of the Australian’s method. Instead he has run lateral lines that have used up the space and time needed for his centres and wings. It is no coincidence that both De Wet Barry and Breyton Paulse have regressed with Rossouw at flyhalf.
Greeff’s straight running and fearless method should restore some room for the backs to move, but it may be offset by the selection of Robbie Fleck at inside centre. A myth has grown up in this country concerning Fleck’s ability to play in the number 12 shirt. It is based upon a performance two years ago in South Africa’s remarkable 46-40 defeat of New Zealand.
That day Fleck scored two tries and created a couple more by the time-honoured method of beating his opposite number. It seemed that Pita Alatini could not believe that Fleck would not pass the ball and bought the dummy as often as a mother of quintuplets. The All Blacks let themselves down in their preparations, for most South Africans know that Fleck rarely passes because it is the weakest part of his game.
But even if Fleck were to reinvent himself in a week it would make no difference to his team’s chances, for they do not have a ball-winning pack, something that even the return of Corné Krige can do nothing to camouflage.
A Lions win is likely to be accompanied by wins for the other three sides in the top four, although both the Bulls and the Cheetahs might seem candidates for an upset. With their one-dimensional game-plan the Bulls are an accident waiting to happen, but even if they lose to the Falcons in Pretoria they will probably still qualify.
Meanwhile the Pumas cannot make the semis, but they definitely qualify as the unluckiest side in the competition, following one-point defeats to both the Lions and Province. They deserve a home win against a good side and if they beat the Cheetahs it will throw the destiny of the trophy wide open all over again.