Israelis go to the polls today knowing that Ariel Sharon is assured of a second term as prime minister, but uncertain what kind of government will emerge, or how long it can survive.
The voters face a stark choice between Sharon’s militarist view of peace through the gunbarrel, and the opposition Labour party’s pledge to resume negotiations with Yasser Arafat unconditionally, immediately close Jewish settlements in the Gaza strip, and unilaterally withdraw from the West Bank if talks do not produce a settlement within a year.
The barrage of opinion polls throughout the campaign all agree that Israel’s 4,7-million voters will overwhelmingly endorse Sharon’s leadership, even though he has overseen one of the most violent periods in the country’s history.
The final polls give his Likud party and its supporters in the rightwing and religious bloc about 65 of the knesset’s 120 seats. Labour and its dovish allies are likely to pick up only about 37 seats.
The balance will be held by parties that stand aside from either bloc, notably the virulently secular Shinui party, which is expected to replace the ultra-religious Shas as the third largest in the knesset. For the first time, thanks to protest votes, the outsiders may include a knesset member from the Green Leaf party, which is campaigning for the legalisation of marijuana.
Labour has privately conceded that it is crashing to its worst defeat since the birth of Israel 55 years ago. But the party still has leverage as Sharon will struggle to put together a coalition that is stable and at least willing to maintain the illusion of pursuing peace.
Sharon’s preference is to revive the national unity government with Labour that he oversaw during most of his first two years as prime minister, and polls suggest that nearly three quarters of the population agrees.
However, the Labour leader, Amram Mitzna, has ruled out any alliance with Sharon. At first, Likud thought Mitzna was posturing, but he has been so insistent that it seems unlikely he will change his mind.
Sharon will still be able to form a government given the backing of the right-wing bloc in the knesset, but it would require a coalition with far-right religious parties which would almost certainly make any concessions to the Palestinians impossible.
Sharon has expressed concerns that a far-right administration hostage to the religious parties would create diplomatic crisis with the US. Political analysts doubt that such a government could survive much more than a year.
Likud activists say that after the election, Sharon is likely to make a direct and public appeal to Mitzna to join a unity administration.
If Mitzna stands by his objections, Likud is counting on him facing a leadership challenge, or his party splitting. Labour itself is currently presenting a united front on the question of joining Sharon’s party.
Likud activists believe a new Labour leader might strike a deal — but they are also for the first time talking of drawing Shinui into a unity government, which would mean Sharon dumping the more hardline religious parties. – Guardian Unlimited Â