Saddam Hussein is to be given a ‘final and non-negotiable’ list of weapons he must destroy or account for within six days to prevent a devastating onslaught from American and British forces.
In a stark outline of the endgame for Iraq, Britain and the US are to publish a set of disarmament ‘trip-points’ detailing specific weapons in his arsenal that the United Nations has listed in a private report to the Security Council circulated this weekend.
With the international community seemingly split on whether the Iraqi dictator should be given more time to comply with resolution 1441, British officials told The Observer that the targets would be based on the UN report by Hans Blix, the head of the weapons inspectors.
Tony Blair hopes that by relying on evidence supplied by the UN itself to push through the vital second resolution on war, Britain and America will avoid accusations that they will act against Iraq whatever the UN says. He also wants to head off a growing rebellion of backbench MPs and the threat of resignation by up to 30 Ministers if no second resolution is achieved.
Last night a number of junior Ministers were named as being ready to resign if there was no second resolution. Anne Campbell, Parliamentary Private Secretary to Patricia Hewitt, the Trade Secretary, Andy Reed, aide to Margaret Beckett, the Environment Secretary, and Michael Jabez Foster, who works for Lord Goldsmith, the Attorney General, have all said they would consider their position.
More than 200 backbench MPs are also likely to rebel if a vote is taken in the Commons on conflict with Iraq without a second resolution.
‘What we are going to do is give Saddam a clear ultimatum,’ said a senior Downing Street figure. ‘What we want to do in the next few days is express clearly what he has to do.’
Number 10 said that the process of fortnightly reports by Blix had now run its course and that it was time for the Security Council to come to a decision.
‘We believe the Blix process is now complete,’ the Prime Minister’s official spokesman said. ‘There is not full and immediate compliance [by Iraq].
‘We want to emphasise that this can still be resolved peacefully if Saddam Hussein decides to disarm. He is only going to make that decision if he believes that this time it is really different.’
It was clear last night that the international community was facing the final make or break week on Iraq. In a desperate plea for more time, France said yesterday it would not support the resolution and made an official appeal for a summit of world leaders to discuss the looming conflict. Russia also said it was opposed to any resolution that ‘authorised war’.
The position of the two permanent members of the Security Council, which both have the power of the veto, is supported by Germany and Syria. Britain and America’s position was supported yesterday by Spain and Bulgaria. The British and US ‘trip points’ will be based on a summary draft of Blix’s UN report circulated by Number 10 yesterday. The document demands that Saddam:
accounts for Iraq’s al-Hussein missile system and 50 Scud Bs which the UN says ‘may have been retained for a proscribed missile force’;
explains the illegal import of 131 Volga engines for its al-Samoud 2 missile system and why Unmovic, the UN inspections team, had later found 231 engines and documentation for a further 150;
accounts for and destroys 550 mustard gas shells and 350 R-400 bombs, which are capable of carrying chemical and biological weapons, which are still outstanding;
reveals the whereabouts of 80 tonnes of mustard gas as well as VX, Sarin and Soman gas.
It is likely that the resolution will be voted on by the middle of this week. If Britain and America succeed in getting the nine votes needed to pass the resolution then Saddam would have until 17 March to comply. If he did not do so military conflict would begin soon after.
If the resolution is passed Government sources said that the Commons would be given a vote on the issue with a possible emergency recall of Parliament next weekend.
Downing Street was bullish last night about the chances of getting the required nine votes to pass the resolution. Sources close to Blair said that all the diplomatic effort would be aimed at persuading the key ‘middle six’ countries — Pakistan, Angola, Cameroon, Guinea, Mexico and Chile — to support the resolution.
An ICM poll for the News of the World today shows that 68 per cent of the public now back military action, with only 22% opposed. Nearly 80% of those who supported action said that there should be a second resolution.
And Dr Mohammed ElBaradei, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, told the Today programme that Saddam had to demonstrate a ‘dramatic’ change in attitude. ‘Clearly the ball is very much in Iraq’s court,’ ElBaradei said.
‘I hope that Iraq understands that they need to have a dramatic change in their attitude to demonstrate to the international community that they are fully, actively co-operating in providing evidence that they do not have chemical and biological weapons.’ – Guardian Unlimited Â