Southern Zambia will require food aid beyond March 2003 and Zambia’s food crisis will stretch well into a third year in the southern part of the country, Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) said in a ”Food Security Warning” report.
Northern Zambia has recorded normal cumulative rainfall and there are indications that a significant amount of maize is still available in northern Zambia due to inflow from Tanzania.
”About 2,77-million highly insecure Zambians — 28% of the population– require nearly 133 000 tons of food aid for the four-month period, December 2002 through March 2003, but food aid distributions are lagging behind,” the report said.
In addition, to a new food aid programme to meet immediate needs, Zambia and its partners require specific actions to extract the country from the present food crisis, mitigate its impact and accelerate recovery.
”Zambia has experienced unusually dry growing seasons (November-June) for two consecutive years (2000/01 and 2001/02) that reduced cereal production, particularly the southern part of the country where most of the highly food insecure population is located,” FEWS NET said.
The 2001/02 harvest left a national cereal deficit of 687 800, more than twice the five-year average.
”Commercial imports were expected to meet more than two-thirds of this deficit, with food aid providing the balance. The World Food Programme (WFP) is managing a southern African regional Emergency Operation (EMOP) to supply two-thirds of Zambia’s food aid needs between July 2002 and March 2003,” the report said.
Planned formal-sector imports of 450 000 tons of maize have fallen far short due to unclear policy signals, difficulties finding non-genetically modified maize and a depreciating currency.
Only 124 100 tons had arrived on March 24 (with another 30 000 tons on the
way), although substantial volumes of informal imports from Tanzania and Mozambique have reduced the cereal gap, keeping supplies stable in the major
cities and moderating price increases.
At the national level, Zambia’s prospects look considerably better this year than last year. As of mid-February, the Southern African Development Community (SADC)
Regional Early Warning Unit estimated that Zambia would produce a minimum 945 000 tons of maize during the 2002/03 production year.
As a result Zambia’s maize deficit could drop by half to 333 000 tons in 2003/04. However, expectations from within Zambia are not as optimistic. A preliminary analysis of area planted by the Early Warning Unit of the Ministry of Agriculture and Co-operatives (MACO) indicates that maize production will not exceed 700 000 tons, compared with 601 606 tons last year.
So far, 2002/03 rains in southern Zambia have been disappointing, erratic and generally unfavourable for good crop performance. By early February, light to moderate rains had fallen over most parts of the country, but southern Zambia has reported a persistent rainfall deficit,
receiving less than 40% of normal seasonal rainfall, a pattern similar to the drought of 1991/92, the worst in many decades. – I-Net Bridge