The monthly poll on the South African stock market outlook conducted by Plexus Research & Surveys among unit trust managers was slightly more positive at the end of March 2003 than for the previous month.
The combination of a strong rand and declines on international stock markets has had a negative impact on local share prices, which has increased the potential one-year returns.
The results of the Plexus Stock Market Barometer reading indicate that the participants’ consensus view of the overall investment climate has increased from marginally positive (+0.5) to positive (+1.0).
The consensus view of the outlook for the domestic financial markets has also improved from +0,5 to +1,0. However, the view of the macro-economic environment has declined to marginally positive (+0,5).
The Plexus barometer surveys the views of senior investment professionals, on a simple seven-point scale from -3 (very pessimistic) to +3 (very positive), on 14 variables combined in two groups over a 12-month horizon. The decline in the consensus view of the macro-economic environment is due, amongst other things, to minor changes in the political sentiment, which has dropped from marginally positive (0,5) to neutral (0).
The surprise, however, was the consensus view on company earnings, which declined from moderately positive (+0,5) to moderately negative (-0,5). This was also one of the variables on which opinions differed the most, from pessimistic (-2) to optimistic (+2).
The pessimists saw the rand as remaining strong for longer, with the concomitant negative implications for the earnings of resources companies.
The highest consensus score was awarded to consumer price inflation and the prime rate, with participants being optimistic (+2) that inflation would decrease considerably during 2003 and would have a positive effect on short- term interest rates.
Unlike the case of short-term interest rates, the consensus view of the outlook for the bonds market was unchanged at neutral (0). This indicated that participants do not expect significant further decreases in long-term interest rates (that is, capital growth).
Participants were still of the opinion that financial shares (+1.5) would be the right investment during 2003. However, there were also major differences of opinion in this regard and views varied from negative (-1) to very optimistic (+3).
Participants were also moderately optimistic (+1,5) about industrial shares and the broader FTSE/JSE Overall Index. The consensus view was unchanged at moderately positive (+0,5) for resources, gold and small company shares. – I-Net-Bridge