Tikrit was the final target of the air and ground operation mounted by American and British forces in Iraq, the last major town to be overrun after three and a half weeks of heavy bombing and shelling.
Saddam Hussein may still be alive but it was clear last night that his Soviet-style central command and control organisation has been shattered.
US and British military commanders originally hoped their attack on Iraq would quickly provoke a coup against the regime, or at least an immediate implosion of the regime’s authority.
The expectation was that Iraqi troops, including the Republican Guard, would speedily help the invading forces maintain law and order.
After it became clear Iraqi forces would either resist, however erratically, or at least not turn on the regime, the plan was to head for Baghdad from Kuwait as soon as possible.
Tikrit, Saddam’s hometown, was the last on the list, and was assumed to be the most strongly defended. Its capture marks the end of the strategic military plan. Now US forces, and to a lesser extent the British, face far less predictable dangers, and a perilous new phase of the military action in Iraq is about to begin.
British military sources said it had been clear for some time from intelligence that the Iraqi regime’s ”last bastion of defence” would not put up much of a fight.
American officials announced that all oilfields in Iraq are now under the control of US forces. They added that two US aircraft carriers and other ships will leave the Gulf this week and return to their home ports. The move, which follows the departure of the British aircraft and helicopter carriers HMS Ark Royal and HMS Ocean, means pilots are running out of targets.
But the US continues to dispatch more ground forces to Iraq, and political leaders and military commanders, wary of being caught out, were yesterday quick to insist the capture of Tikrit did not mean the war was over.
It would not be won, said the defence secretary, Geoff Hoon, until the last ”pockets of resistance are resolved — these are among the most fanatical elements”, he said.
”We have had illustrations, sometimes, of foreign fighters simply running at machine-gun positions knowing full well they will be killed,” he added.
Although the key cities are now all under US or British control, there were reports of continued heavy fighting in patches across the country and serious concerns about security in many of the urban areas that have fallen.
Iraqi fighters were reported to be mounting some resistance in Qaim, on the border with Syria. There were also pockets of sporadic resistance south-west of Tikrit.
In the Commons, Tony Blair also referred to continued fighting, much of it involving what he called ”foreign irregular forces”. ”We are near the end of the conflict. But the challenge of the peace is now beginning,” he said.
Captain Frank Thorp, a US representative at central command in Qatar, said: ”It would be premature to say the war is over — the Iraqi military appears to be over and organised fighting over, but things continue.”
There has been evidence of foreign fighters — volunteers who have crossed the border from Jordan and Syria — and of suicide bombers. American forces found about 300 explosive vests in Baghdad last week and believe 80 others were taken from the stockpile before it was discovered, Lieutenant-General Vincent Brooks said at a US briefing in Qatar.
The nature of the future threat to American and British forces has clearly changed.
Admiral Sir Michael Boyce, chief of the UK defence staff, stressed yesterday that more ”high-intensity” fighting in southern Iraq, where security is the responsibility of British forces, was ”extremely unlikely”. The troops will now be ready to deal with low-intensity warfare — focusing on a threat from snipers, pockets of armed guerrillas, and small groups of committed anti-western fighters.
One key remaining potential threat is posed by the tens of thousands of Iraqi troops, including the Republican Guard, who are repeatedly reported to have ”melted away”.
According to Sir Michael, they left their weapons behind — including tanks — and returned to their homes.
”The more unpleasant species, the Fedayeen [guerrillas loyal to Saddam’s regime] are either killed or have left the cities,” he said. ”If they stayed around the Iraqi people will kill them.”
There is no estimate — let alone a reliable figure — of how many Iraqi soldiers died in the bombing and the shelling throughout Iraq. Some analysts say those who returned to their homes with their rifles remain a potentially significant threat to US and British occupying forces.
Toby Dodge, an expert on Iraq at Warwick University, said Iraqi troops who had disappeared could provide a ”rump bandit force” or a ”force for nationalist struggle”.
A lot may depend on how US forces occupy Iraq, he added. He also referred to the bitter arguments between Shia leaders in the holy city of Najaf that led to two assassinations last week. Religious tensions could exacerbate tribal and political divisions which could, in turn, compound the problems facing US troops, analysts said.
On the question of Saddam’s whereabouts, Hoon said yesterday that it was assumed he was still in Iraq, probably in Baghdad.
Intelligence sources say that while Syria may have taken in female members of Saddam’s family and some Ba’ath party officials, it would not take the international risk involved in providing a haven for Saddam.
”I’d be amazed if he was there [in Syria]. I think it would be an act of suicidal stupidity if they let him in,” Dodge said yesterday.
”They may take in mid-ranking people but not top-level guys because that would give the US the leverage they need either to launch destabilisation or to isolate Syria in the international system.”
Dodge said he thought Saddam was still in Baghdad. ”If you read carefully between the lines, I would have thought the US control maybe 20% of urban Baghdad, if that.” – Guardian Unlimited Â