The South African government has “moved speedily” to eliminate a possible recurrence of the errors made by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) in its calculations of the inflation rate, Finance Minister Trevor Manuel said on Monday.
Addressing members of Parliament during the Treasury’s budget vote, Manuel said the government took the matter “very, very seriously”, and Stats SA was committed to the enhanced quality of its products and services, as well as developing human skills, enhancing statistical integration, and refocusing statistical information in line with user requirements, among other goals.
In May Stats SA acknowledged that its use of outdated inflation data regarding housing rentals had skewed the country’s official inflation data, resulting in an overstatement of CPIX (headline consumer inflation less mortgage rates, used for inflation targeting) by 1,9 percentage points in March (to a revised 9,3% from 11,2%).
“South Africa has a shallow endowment of numeracy and statistical skills,” the minister noted.
“As an ongoing project, the organisation must be built from the ground up, recruiting, training and retraining — a task which is exceedingly difficult when we have only one university that currently offers official statistics as a course, which incidentally was only introduced at the start of the 2002 academic year. Whilst this process continues, important outputs must be regularly and accurately produced. Furthermore, ongoing campaigns are necessary to convince the sources of information – people in their homes, businesses or public servants that the supply of accurate information is not optional.”
Manuel said the strengthening of the organisation and the veracity of its outputs was receiving ongoing attention in partnership with some of the leading statistical agencies in the world. Recently the government had invited evaluation missions from the International Monetary Fund, Statistics Sweden and Stats Canada, and while each of their reports had commended the improvements already made, they also pointed to what remained to be done.
One of the key focal areas resulting from these interactions was the strengthening of the business register, a process also involving the Department of Trade and Industry, the Department of Labour and the South African Revenue Service (Sars) to ensure that all the databases were using the same core information.
“We will soon be able to announce a broadening of the register to provide a new sample frame for key data on the economy such as output, earnings, employment, labour law exemptions and tax registration. Going forward, we will have both a better stronger data source and a reference check for other outputs. Similarly, in close collaboration with the Statistics Council, we will recast the essential series, with a strong emphasis on periodic surveys.”
He also noted that Stats SA would be unveiling the results of Census 2001 on July 8.
“Stats SA will endeavour to remain true to its vision — a focus on quality and competence, and the promotion of evidence based planning and decision making,” Manuel concluded.
“Despite the recent difficulties, its commitment to be the standard bearer of statistics of the highest quality remains very, very strong. Notwithstanding the fact that as responsible minister, my remit is limited by statute and practice, I wish to give this House the assurance that we will work hard to overcome the obstacles that we ourselves are so conscious of.” – I-Net Bridge