Whoever named the landscape of northern Sao Tome was an optimist. Overlooking the collection of shacks known as Morro Peixe is a Mount Hope, from which Gold river flows to the Atlantic, where villagers in canoes seek turtles and prawns.
These days everyone is talking of the other riches beneath the waves, the oil, but Hipolito Lima wonders whether it will spare his six children from poverty.
Few things are certain in this tiny island nation linked to the world by Air Gabon, better known as Air Perhaps, and the 53-year-old fisherman suspects the landscape was named ironically. ”The oil is an opportunity, sure. But whether we benefit depends on the conscience of the big guys.” Lima never finished school but he knows enough African history to conclude that oil and prosperity do not mix.
The person with the most power to change that will step from Air Force One today on to African soil for a week-long visit billed as a mission to help the likes of the Lima children. George Bush comes with no treaties to shred, no enemies to warn, no troops to congratulate. Instead, the warrior president brings promises of billions of dollars and a series of initiatives to relieve the continent’s suffering.
Starting in Senegal and continuing in South Africa, Botswana, Uganda and Nigeria, he will unveil a kinder, gentler touch.
Sums to fight HIV/Aids and trade concessions will be the centrepiece, but fate has granted Washington a potentially more powerful instrument to better the continent: oil. Off West Africa’s coast lie vast deposits of high-quality crude suited to US refineries. Advances in deep drilling make the deposits viable just as the US seeks to reduce dependence on the Gulf.
A taskforce headed by the vice president, Dick Cheney, linked African oil imports to national security, something pro-Israeli and neo-conservative strategists have advocated since September 11.
Black American leaders have hailed the policy as good news for Africa: hundreds of them will attend a summit in Nigeria next week to discuss ways the US can boost the continent’s oil output.
Some $200-billion in revenues is expected to flow into African government treasuries over 10 years. The biggest bonanza in their history will dwarf western aid and provide a unique opportunity to alleviate poverty.
For Bush it is a beautiful convergence: weaning the US off Saudi Arabia, an objective of the war on terror, while helping Africa and scoring points with black voters in the run-up to his re-election campaign.
But will the oil help communities lacking electricity, medicines and clean water, the Africa inhabited by Hipolito Lima?
For two decades Angola, Nigeria and Gabon have pumped billions of barrels only to discover that it has fuelled corruption and poverty, a phenomenon academics call ”paradox of plenty”. Sub-Saharan Africa is on the cusp of a bigger oil rush that could launch a fresh cycle of conflict and misrule — or of development and prosperity.
A recent report, Bottom of the Barrel, from the US aid agency Catholic Relief Services, said western governments could make a difference by urging the oil industry and African rulers to be more transparent in their dealings. ”The long-term stability of Sao Tome and other producers in Africa will depend on how much emphasis the US, Europe and international institutions like the World Bank and IMF put on governance and transparency,” said Ian Gary, author of the report.
Washington may yet lead the first ethical scramble for Africa. Last month Colin Powell, the US secretary of state, told African leaders to end corruption. ”You must have transparency in your systems,” he said.
In few countries are the stakes as high as the island nation of Sao Tome and Principe, two specks in the Gulf of Guinea with a population of 140 000 and a gross national product that could buy one, but not two, David Beckhams. Seismic data suggest billions of barrels lie offshore, prompting comparisons to Brunei and Kuwait, and oil companies are expected to bid at least $300-million for exploration rights.
Purgatory
”It will be heaven, hell or purgatory depending on the choices made by the political elite,” said Carlos Tiny, a former health minister.
The oil minister, Rafael Branco, promised to publish the bids in October. ”We want maximum transparency, for the oil to help our democratic institutions.”
Since independence from Portugal in 1975, the country has settled political disputes without bloodshed. That and a size unconducive to secrets prompts Roberta dos Santos, of Step-Up, a non-governmental organisation based in Sao Tome, to hope Sao Tome’s poor will be the first in Africa to benefit from oil. But few share that optimism. They look beyond Powell’s rhetoric and see Washington playing by the old rules: dodgy deals, amoral alliances and military engagement.
”Let’s be honest. We are a spare tyre in case the Middle East gives the Americans a hard time. They don’t care as long as the oil is safe to be pumped,” said Patrice Trovoada, a former foreign minister with a construction business in Houston.
Tiny welcomed Washington’s interest but wanted more pressure on the oil industry and his cabinet successors. ”I’d like to see the Americans do more in promoting transparency. They have the means to match their words.”
Not a drop has been extracted in Sao Tome but already the signs are ominous. It astonished industry analysts by awarding hugely favourable terms to an obscure Texas oil firm, ERHC, since taken over by a Nigerian, with no drilling rigs.
President Fradique Bandeira Melo de Menezes later admitted receiving $100 000 from the company but said it was a legitimate political donation. ERHC denied giving any money.
The Guardian has obtained documents suggesting shady government deals in two tourist developments. ”Yes, corruption here is a fact of life,” said Trovoada.
Into this arena move giants like ExxonMobil and ChevronTexaco. They come for profit not patriotism, but the White House is smoothing the path, said Branco, the oil minister. ”Oil exploration is a risky business and the political environment is crucial.” Olegario Tiny, a leading oil lawyer, said the conglomerates were reassured. ”For them it is always better to have a strong US presence.”
The Voice of America radio network has transmitters on Sao Tome and General Carlton Fulford, the head of the US European command, visited last year, supposedly to discuss coastguards. Rumours of a military base are premature, said a US diplomat in the region, but he revealed that the Pentagon has started funding English lessons for Sao Tome’s 200-strong army. – Guardian Unlimited Â