Shuvai Mahofa, the Zanu-PF matriarch from the powerful Masvingo province, recently let the cat out of the bag: serious tribal jockeying for President Robert Mugabe’s post has rocked the party since it became apparent that he might leave office before the end of the year.
Mugabe has ruled Zimbabwe since independence from Britain in 1980.
Mahofa, a long-serving official in the party’s women’s league, said an informal Zanu-PF committee, made up of some of its most powerful members, was operating clandestinely, vetting possible candidates for Mugabe’s seat if it becomes vacant in December, as expected.
The 79-year-old Zimbabwean president, under attack from the United States and Britain over Zimbabwe’s current economic and political crisis, is widely expected to leave office at that month’s crucial Zanu-PF national conference.
Mahofa said some senior Zanu-PF members had approached her. “I was shocked to realise that some people were already canvassing for support for certain individuals,” said Mahofa, adding that some of those involved had “dangerous political ambitions” that threatened to divide the party along tribal lines.
While keeping mum in public, Zanu-PF officials privately admit that discussions about Mugabe’s successor has already been marked by tribal and regional battles.
Party officials say Karangas and Ndebeles — who form what has been termed “the southern axis” — feel it is time one of their own came into power.
They say it would not be “feasible” for another Zezuru to succeed Mugabe. The Zanu-PF leader is a Zezuru.
The officials say while the Ndebele and other Nguni speakers were expected to rally behind a single candidate from their ranks, the same cannot be said of the majority Karangas.
Eddison Zvobgo, a Karanga lawyer once considered the person most likely to succeed Mugabe, has over the years watched helplessly as Mugabe has used his rivals in Masvingo to destroy his formerly formidable power base to an extent that many believe Zvobgo is no longer a serious presidential contender.
The sharp, US-trained lawyer with the gift of the gab, was for years considered Mugabe’s heir apparent until the two fell out after Zvobgo reportedly made some unflattering remarks about Mugabe’s capabilities.
A traffic accident in the late 1990s and subsequent bad health have also conspired against Zvobgo, a highly respected legislator blamed in some quarters though for crafting the post-independence Presidential Powers Act that gave Mugabe unlimited power.
Although Zvobgo said recently he was in the race to succeed Mugabe, current developments within Zanu-PF might scuttle his ambitions.
Zvobgo is being investigated for not campaigning energetically enough for Mugabe during last year’s presidential election.
Without Zvobgo, a founder member of Zanu-PF in the early 1960s, Masvingo’s claim to the presidency of both the party and Zimbabwe becomes rather lightweight and inconsequential.
While the names of Foreign Minister Stan Mudenge and former Airforce commander Josiah Tungamirai, are touted in some quarters, the duo are considered too young and lacking in the necessary qualities to launch any serious campaign for Mugabe’s position.
John Nkomo, the Zanu chairperson and a Cabinet minister, is perhaps the best placed of the current top Ndebele leaders to succeed Mugabe.
A quiet, self-effacing, but calculating man, whom party insiders say has won over Mugabe, Nkomo was the surprise compromise for the post of Zanu-PF chairperson ahead of Mugabe’s preferred choice, Emmerson Mnangagwa.
Political analysts say Nkomo, although a relative “outsider”, is most likely to win the coveted post should a stalemate arise within the warring tribes over who should succeed the veteran nationalist.
They point out that while Nkomo’s appointment might annoy some Karangas and Manyikas, they would probably settle for the soft-spoken politician and hope that his tenure would be short.
Among the other senior Ndebeles in Zanu-PF, the only other person with the kind of war credentials to be considered a possible successor to Mugabe is former home affairs minister Dumiso Dabengwa.
Dabengwa’s problem is that although he remains a member of Zanu-PF’s powerful politburo, his past may continue to haunt him. Dabengwa was arrested for allegedly organising a military campaign against Mugabe just after independence in 1980.
He is no longer a member of Mugabe’s ruling clique after a novice from the opposition Movement for Democratic Change challenged his alleged invincibility in Matabeland and trounced him in the 2000 general election.
That brings us back to Speaker of Assembly Mnangagwa.
Although the man considered Mugabe’s blue-eyed boy says he is not interested in his mentor’s post, many Zimbabweans believe that the sly former intelligence chief is playing his cards too close to the chest for comfort.
Punters for the former head of the dreaded Central Intelligence Organisation (CIO) spy agency say Mnangagwa displays the same kind of ruthlessness that Mugabe admires and believes can hold Zanu-PF together after his departure from public life.
They say Mnangagwa’s love affair with commerce and industry, epitomised by his close relationships with Zimbabwe’s new breed of black entrepreneurs, also places him above others in the eyes of interested foreign parties such as South Africa, the US and Britain, as well as the crucial Bretton Woods institutions.
Mnangagwa’s blemish, though, remains — he was the CIO boss who advised Mugabe when he unleashed his North Korean-trained Five Brigade, blamed for massacres in the Matabeleland and Midlands provinces in the early 1980s.
Then, of course, there is the unpredictable Edgar Tekere. Once the second-most powerful man in Zanu PF, Tekere — fired by Mugabe in the late 1980s — formed the now defunct Zimbabwe Unity Movement and is now reportedly coming back into the party.
Addressing a crowd in the packed auditorium of a Harare hotel last week, Tekere declared that he had never emotionally or “intentionally” left Zanu-PF and revealed that there was a concerted move to lure him back, with the offer of a very senior position.
Tekere’s critics say Zimbabweans are unlikely to have forgotten his drunken antics, which were gleefully exposed by the government press while he was in the Zanu-PF wilderness. Others say Mugabe believes that Tekere is not to be trusted.
Officials say, while “Twoboy” — as he is affectionately called — might bring back nostalgia for the party’s good old days, nobody in Zanu-PF is sure how he would behave if allowed the chance to assume the top office in the party.
Then there are the dark horses.
Political analysts say the succession issue cannot be settled without taking into consideration the feelings of Solomon Mujuru, one of Zimbabwe’s most respected war heroes.
They point out that the retired army chief, who is still a kingmaker in Zanu-PF, might actually consider that with Mugabe’s departure, he himself is presidential material and throw his hat into the ring.
Other relative newcomers whose names are sometimes bandied about include the loquacious Information Minister Jonathan Moyo, former minister Simba Makoni, Mugabe’s former long-time confidant Charles Utete, and the current Airforce commander Perrence Shiri. Asked about Moyo’s prospects, one senior Zanu-PF member laughed out loud.
But given the dearth of young and capable politicians in the party, Moyo could, indeed, have the last laugh.