The fragile peace process between arch-rivals India and Pakistan appears to have survived the blow dealt by the Mumbai car bombings that claimed 52 lives, analysts said on Thursday.
They said that Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee’s choice of words in avoiding even mention of Pakistan in a speech in Indian Kashmir on Wednesday had probably rescued the peace initiative after his deputy Lal Krishna Advani stopped short of blaming Islamabad for Monday’s twin blasts.
However, they warned that militant attacks overnight in the Kashmiri summer capital Srinagar just kilometers from where Vajpayee was staying could weaken the Indian side’s peace commitments.
Pakistan had criticised India for making ”baseless allegations” over the bombings and for raising tensions once again after a thaw had begun to set in following an April offer by Vajpayee of a ”hand of friendship” to Islamabad.
”There has been a definite setback to the peace process after the Mumbai blasts. But … Vajpayee’s statements in Srinagar for peace shows that the initiative will not come to a halt,” said Kalim Bahadur, South Asia expert and former professor at Jawahar Lal Nehru University.
”However, it should be understood that if there are more such incidents even Vajpayee may have to call for a review of India’s situation with Pakistan.”
Bahadur added that Advani’s statements were probably made in his capacity as home minister ”as he keeps close track of criminal activities”.
Advani, touring the wreckage of Monday’s blasts, demanded that Pakistan hand over 19 people on a most-wanted list issued by India during 18 months of war tensions that have only recently eased.
But Pakistan said it has ”already made it clear that the suspects are not on its soil”.
Bahadur said Pakistan should have responded to Advani’s renewed demand.
”What is the big deal? Pakistan has handed over so many top-notch criminals to the United States. They could have made similar extraditions to India. That would have gone a long way towards normalising relations.”
Advani went on the attack again on Thursday, warning in Srinagar that violent incidents in India can have adverse impact on the peace process with Pakistan.
”I am sure that our neighbour would be concious of the fact that happenings of the kind that happened yesterday here or in Mumbai … do affect the whole process adversely,” he told a news conference.
IN Mukherjee, a professor at Jawahar Lal Nehru University’s School of International Studies, said there was a feeling in India that Pakistan had not done enough to show its commitment to the peace initiative.
”The national leadership has managed to keep the peace initiative going. But there has been a definite impact because of the Mumbai bombings,” he said.
India and Pakistan, who have fought three wars since their 1947 independence, have restored full diplomatic relations and bus services since Vajpayee’s symbolic gesture of conciliation on April 18.
Mukherjee added that the ongoing aviation talks between the two sides in Pakistan for resumption of direct air links was a clear pointer that the Indian side was not yet about to abandon the peace initiative.
India snapped air, road and rail links with Pakistan following the December 2001 attack on its Parliament, which it blamed on gunmen sponsored by Pakistan.
New Delhi accuses Islamabad of backing the militants waging the insurgency in Indian Kashmir that has claimed more than 38 000 lives since 1989. Pakistan denies the charge of aiding the militants.
Islamabad says that it has already clamped down on militant camps. — Sapa-AFP