Palestinian prime minister Mahmud Abbas may have resigned in a bid to squeeze concessions from Yasser Arafat in a bitter power battle, but it has left the road map in tatters.
”It is a poker game,” says Palestinian analyst Zakaria al-Qaq, director of the Israel/Palestine Centre for Research and Information, summing up Abbas’ decision to quit on Saturday.
The two leaders have been at loggerheads ever since April when Arafat, under immense international pressure, particularly from the United States, appointed the man long seen as his faithful lieutenant as his first-ever prime minister.
Their disagreement hinged on who should control the Palestinian Authority’s sprawling security apparatus and its differences towards the US-backed road map peace plan that paves the way for the creation of a Palestinian state by 2005.
Desperate to rein in radical Palestinian groups and wrest control of the security services from Arafat, Abbas said transferring them to him was essential if the roadmap was to survive.
”In my view, Abu Mazen [Abbas’s nom de guerre] wanted to put pressure on Arafat,” Qaq said.
His point of view is shared by many in Israel, where the dapper politician has won admirers for his moderate stance.
Science and Technology Minister Eliezer Zandberg described his resignation as ”a desperate appeal for the international community to help him get rid of Arafat”.
And as Saturday wore on without any official response from Arafat, it became clear just how high Abbas has raised the stakes in this game of brinkmanship.
Israel will never accept Arafat or any of his ”partisans” taking control of the Palestinian Authority in place of Abbas, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s office said in a statement.
Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom also warned that Israel ”will not negotiate with Arafat. This man is part of the problem, not the solution”.
Both Israel and Washington refuse to deal with the man they see as an obstacle to the peace process and deeply implicated in anti-Israeli attacks.
Indeed, Abbas’s departure is only likely to heighten clamours from some in the Israeli Cabinet that Arafat be kicked out of the West Bank.
So far the US has vetoed his expulsion, conscious that the majority of Palestinians distrust Abbas as a Washington man and that his fate would be sealed without Arafat.
But the veteran leader is likely to expose himself open to huge risks if he lets Abbas go, exacerbated by Washington and Israel’s determination to protect him.
In short, their political survival each depends on the other, noted by the Israeli daily Maariv, which Thursday described them as ”Siamese twins”.
Whatever Arafat decides to do: apportion Abbas greater power or appoint a successor, the future of the road map looks bleaker than ever before.
Given Israel’s avowed refusal to negotiate with anyone else, the nomination of another premier would seal the fate of the peace process.
But if Abbas says in his job, he will continue to be hemmed in by a jealous Arafat and his unpopularity from fellow Palestinians who lambast him for being too soft with Israel.
For Qaq, the inevitable conclusion is that the road map is dead and buried.
”I think the road map is over … The roadmap was over even before this crisis,” he says.
Abbas’s resignation is bound to delay the Middle East peace process, US Homeland Security chief Tom Ridge said on Saturday.
”The resignation of prime minister Abu Mazen will cause inevitable delays,” Ridge said at an international forum.
But he added that it would not discourage President George Bush in his efforts to get the parties to the Mideast conflict around the conference table ”to recommence discussions and to respect the stages” of the road map to peace.
”Now we have to see who will succeed him, but for the US, Arafat is not a partner because he has not participated in the peace process as he should have done,” Ridge said.
The State Department had little to say on the matter on Saturday.
”We are still looking at the events as they unfold,” a State Department official said on condition of anonymity, declining to elaborate. — Sapa-AFP