/ 24 January 2004

A turning point for Africa?

Africa will witness several key elections this year, with some constituting a litmus test for nations emerging from war and unrest and others marking a milestone, as in South Africa which fetes the 10th anniversary of the end of apartheid.

In nations such as Malawi, Cameroon, Ghana, Mozambique and Namibia, the polls will see veteran rulers stepping down — a sign that things are changing in a continent where democracy often carries less clout than in other parts of the world.

The most important polls in terms of the number of voters will be those in Algeria and South Africa, two economic powerhouses located on the northern and southern extremities of the continent.

Ahead of the presidential election scheduled in the north African country for April, a serious rift has opened in the ruling National Liberation Front party, which at its congress in March last year threw its weight behind former prime minister Ali Benflis and dropped support for President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, whom the party had backed in presidential elections in 1999.

Benflis — who was sacked by Bouteflika in May — has declared himself a candidate in the poll, while Bouteflika has not publicly said whether he plans to stand again, but it is widely believed that he will.

Algeria’s influential army has said it will be strictly neutral but underlined in the same breath that it will closely follow political developments.

Algeria’s eastern neighbour Tunisia is also due to hold presidential elections in 2004, the outcome of which are unlikely to surprise anyone.

There, a referendum in May 2002 gave long-time President Zine el Abidine ben Ali (67) the right to run for another term in office as electors overwhelmingly approved constitutional amendments removing presidential term limits and raising the age ceiling for candidates from 70 to 75.

In South Africa, President Thabo Mbeki, who succeeded Nelson Mandela in 1999, is considered to be assured of returning to power with an opinion poll predicting that his ruling African National Congress (ANC) will get more than 60% of the vote.

The ANC has ruled the country since 1994 when white minority rule officially ended, paving the way for the first democratic elections. The polls this year will coincide with a giant jamboree to mark the 10th anniversary of the end of apartheid.

Elections due at the end of the year in Mozambique will also be significant as President Joachim Chissano, who has led the country since 1986, has announced his intention to retire.

Municipal elections held in November gave encouraging signs for the country, which emerged from a 16-year civil war in 1992. The Mozambique National Resistance (Renamo) main opposition party, formerly a rebel grouping, hailed those polls as the most peaceful and transparent ever.

Namibia too will have a new leader at the end of the year after being led by Sam Nujoma since independence in 1990.

In Malawi, Bakili Muluzi will in May cede his place as head of state, but he will go somewhat unwillingly, having failed to modify the constitution to allow him a third term. Elections elsewhere, if held, will mark an important step toward stability.

For the first time since 1993, the start of a brutal civil war in Burundi which has claimed some 300 000 lives, authorities are thinking of staging parliamentary and municipal elections between now and October. The legislature emerging from those elections will designate the president and vice president of the post-transition period, who will be from different ethnic groups that have fought in the 10-year civil war.

The Comoros will elect federal lawmakers in April. Each of the three islands in the coup-prone Indian Ocean nation of about 630 000 people has since last year had its own president and government under a loose federal arrangement.

General elections are due in March in the impoverished former Portuguese colony of Guinea-Bissau, six months after former president Kumba Yala was toppled in a coup.

And the Central African Republic — where ex-president Ange Felix Patasse was ousted in a putsch in March — will hold municipal, legislative and presidential elections between the end of this year and early 2005 to allow a promised return to constitutional rule.

In Cameroon, meanwhile, Paul Biya, who has been at the helm since 1982, is widely expected to be re-elected given the fact that he faces a disorganised opposition. In Ghana’s polls, President John Kufuor faces a key test of his government’s first term after years of rule by Jerry Rawlings, a former military putschist.

Mainly desert Niger will hold presidential and legislative elections which will mark the first time that an elected leader, Mamadou Tandja, has ended his term in a climate of stability. ‒ Sapa-AFP