The announcement on Monday that South Africa will go to the polls on April 14 for its third democratic election has opened the way for political parties to start campaigning in earnest. But, analysts are already predicting that the ruling African National Congress will be returned to power with a sweeping majority.
“Voter support for the ANC is stable, as evidenced in the 1994 and 1999 general elections, as well as from recent opinion polls,” said Tom Lodge, a political science lecturer at the University of the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg.
Addressing a news conference organised by the Electoral Institute of Southern Africa (Eisa) in Johannesburg this week, Lodge said: “The ANC draws its support from about two-thirds of the electorate. Its most loyal and emotionally committed voters are poor, rural and black — but it also enjoys overwhelming backing from black people in towns, nationwide.”
Blacks make up 75% of South Africa’s 45-million-strong population.
Lodge also sounded an alarm about the racial dynamics of South Africa’s political landscape.
“Race still divides South Africa’s electorates with respect to political affiliations to a dangerous degree. It would be important if parties ignore race and concentrate on real issues,” he advised.
Former president FW de Klerk, who played a leading role in dismantling apartheid, issued a similar message this week, when he observed that race continued to play a dominant role in politics 10 years after the end of white rule.
De Klerk stunned the world when he released the ANC’s Nelson Mandela from a 27-year-long imprisonment in 1989. He then started negotiations with the ANC, an initiative that culminated in the historic multiparty elections that brought Mandela to power in 1994.
Lodge, who is helping Eisa to produce a fortnightly newsletter called Election Update 2004, said: “White support for the ANC has increased fractionally, mainly in the Western Cape province, but remains insignificant.”
“In the context of a keen competition, the ANC can be expected to make efforts to court white votes in the Western Cape,” he added.
Over the past decade, the ANC has also struggled to obtain a majority among Indian voters, who make up 2% of South Africa’s population. But, the party’s share of the coloured (mixed race) vote has increased to well above half, particularly in the smaller rural towns, according to Eisa.
By January 24, the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) said it had registered 19,4-million voters out of a possible 28-million: 1,3-million more than for the 1999 elections.
Rivalry between South African blacks might also pose a threat to the smooth running of general elections.
“One of the greatest challenges to democratic South Africa has been the rivalry between the ANC and the Inkatha Freedom Party in KwaZulu-Natal. This is a rivalry which, even prior to the unbanning of the ANC in 1990, descended into violent conflict for control of the province,” observed Laurence Piper of the University of KwaZulu-Natal.
“It was a rivalry that, by the eve of the 1994 ballot, had spurred on the IFP to embrace a militant Zulu nationalism.”
KwaZulu-Natal has 5,5-million potential voters — but only 3,4-million have registered to vote, according to the IEC.
This figure is, however, higher than that recorded in June 1999 when the province had slightly more than two million registered voters.
Lodge agreed that difficulties may be looming in the KwaZulu-Natal and Western Cape regions.
“Unlike the 1999 elections, the uncertainty in the two provinces is very real. An outcome in one of the provinces may not be accepted by the other party,” he said, adding:”In KwaZulu-Natal, the polls suggest a neck-to-neck election between the ANC and IFP.”
But, “Since 1994, all the political parties in South Africa — including the most insignificant ones, have accepted the results of every election as free and fair. It is therefore in everybody’s interest that this should be the case [again],” Lodge noted.
President Thabo Mbeki launched his party’s campaign in KwaZulu-Natal last month. While there, he told supporters that the ANC and its allies were the only parties with a “proven track record of reducing poverty and delivering on the promise of ensuring a better life for all”.
He also promised to create one million jobs within the next five years. About 40% of South Africans are unemployed.
In its manifesto, the ANC pledges to spend about R100-billion on building schools, hospitals and roads — and more than R14-billion to promote black businesses.
During the coming weeks more than 100 political parties will be courting voters, who are to cast ballots in 70Â 000 polling stations around the country.
Eisa’s executive director, Dennis Kadima, said his organisation would work with community radio stations to educate voters about the necessity of free and fair elections. — IPS