The outcome of the election in most provinces may be a foregone conclusion. But in KwaZulu-Natal and the Western Cape — where opinion polls show that there might be no clear winner — parties are playing their cards carefully, in case they have to cut a deal with the opposition to hang on to power.
So as election rhetoric grows sharper between the Inkatha Freedom Party and the African National Congress in KwaZulu-Natal, the possibility is already being raised that the two parties might patch up their political and personal differences.
For now, however, IFP provincial spokesperson Reverend Musa Zondi described the tension between his party and the ANC as “unmanageable”.
In a bristling response, ANC provincial spokesperson Mtholephi Mthimkhulu said if the ANC and the IFP are to have a working relationship after the elections the IFP will need a “Damascus change” to prove that it is “prepared to contribute towards building South Africa’s democracy”.
The KwaZulu-Natal coalition government is dominated by the IFP, but includes provincial ministers representing the ANC and the Democratic Alliance. The DA and the IFP are contesting the elections as the “Coalition for Change”. The ANC and the New National Party are also contesting the elections in a loose alliance.
The KwaZulu-Natal election has been described by most analysts as “too close to call”. They say that voter behaviour on the day — which could be determined by the weather, the willingness of rural voters to get to another taxi, and interest — will swing the results.
The “Coalition for Change” is weakened by the fact that having set themselves up as the opposition to the ANC but listed as individual parties on the ballot, the IFP and DA are fishing in the same pond.
“What is going to be really interesting is how horse-trading [in KZN] may take place post-elections in terms of these coalitions trying to court smaller parties,” said Sanusha Naidu, a research specialist at the Human Sciences Research Council.
Loss of the province by the IFP could jeopardise its future as a political force in South Africa — especially if it leads to the end of the party’s representation in the national Cabinet. The election has been marked by particularly sharp exchanges between IFP president Mangosuthu Buthelezi and ANC president Thabo Mbeki, in addition in a bruising court battle this week over whether Buthelezi could or could not publish immigration regulations without Cabinet approval. The court judgement went Mbeki’s way.
“Without prominent portfolios in the Cabinet, the IFP will be reduced to a bit player on the national political stage and it is not unlikely that it will be gently feeling its way towards a rapprochement with the ANC once this election is out of the way,” said Kiru Naidoo, a political analyst from the Durban Institute of Technology.
“For the sake of peace and cooperation it would be a magnanimous approach on the new president’s behalf and something that will have to be considered,” added the HSRC’s Naidu.
Despite their rhetoric, the IFP and the ANC have left the door open to carrying on working together in the KwaZulu-Natal and national governments. The IFP said the decision to invite the party into the national Cabinet is Mbeki’s preserve, while the ANC nationally has been careful not to slam the door shut on its rival.
“With the government of national unity model, the ANC and the IFP are effectively coalition partners in Cabinet, but their inter-party contestation is a little too healthy,” said Naidoo. “The ANC is aware that whatever the outcome of the poll, it cannot wish away the IFP.”
Meanwhile, in the Western Cape — away from blustering election victory talk — parties admit that none of them will win outright on its own.
The DA has set its sights on the African Christian Democratic Party with whom there is “a decent chance of cooperation”, according to a senior DA official. The party has staked much political credibility on regaining the province, where it was ousted from power by the ANC/NNP pact.
But things could get complicated. While some in the Western Cape ACDP appear to be in favour, others are reluctant to be part of an opposition government. And nationally there is caution, even if the ACDP is not necessarily opposed to alliances.
An all-inclusive multi-party government would be the best option for the Western Cape, said provincial ACDP leader Pauline Cupido, confirming that discussions had already taken place. But it would be “preferable to wait” until after elections, she added. “We have some reservations.”
The DA may struggle to find partners with which to form a provincial government. The opposition seats are filled by former DA members. Among them is Cupido, who lost out in the 2002 premier candidate race to Theuns Botha. She defected to the ACDP a year ago after having what she described as “a spiritual experience”.
New Labour Party leader Peter Marais, the former DA Cape Town mayor, brings much political baggage. His expulsion over a vote-rigging scandal on petitions to rename two city streets became the public pretext for the break-up of the DA/NNP alliance.
And then there are the Independent Democrats, predicted to receive about 6% of the provincial vote. The ID has been the target of the DA’s aggressive campaign to gather all minority votes into its fold. Much was made also of ID leader Patricia de Lille’s rejection of DA overtures to join the party during last year’s window periods for defections from parties.
The ANC and NNP have dismissed the possibility that they will not regain the Western Cape. The only issue is the composition of the provincial government, which the parties plan to discuss after the elections.
The Western Cape is the most contested province, with 19 competing political parties. It also has the largest pool of undecided voters (17,6%). According to pollsters, they are mostly opposition voters, who unlike ANC voters, are reluctant to declare their loyalties.
While a low voter turnout favours the ANC, the DA is renowned for getting its supporters to the polls. “We are confident of winning with a clear majority should all our voters come out on election day,” said Craig Morkel, the Western Cape DA spokesperson.
“Coalitions will be discussed after April 14. We are not opposed to working with like-minded parties.”
In the Eastern Cape, the United Democratic Movement and the DA are tussling not for power but for the status of official opposition in the provincial legislature.
The UDM currently holds the title, and the latest SABC/Markinor opinion poll puts its support in the province at 5,4%, to the DA’s 4,5%.
The UDM scoffs at the idea that the DA will take the position away from the party, saying that the people of the province uphold African culture and traditional values and will not vote for whites.
“We are not in a race with the DA; they are no competition for us,” said Mabandla Gogo, UDM spokesperson. He said the DA will not become the official opposition because “history speaks for itself”.
The DA is unconcerned. The party has sent Athol Trollip, a Xhosa-speaking provincial leader, to campaign in the rural areas where people do not speak English.
Trollip says the votes in the area are not determined on racial and cultural lines but because people are poor, hungry and tired of the lack of delivery.
Veliswa Mvenya, a DA counsellor in the Amatole district, says she has met many black people who have been searching for the DA and there was a perception that the DA was only for white people. “Some people don’t want to go in public [that voting DA], they scared of intimidation.”
She said the DA is for all people and the fact that Trollip is white makes no difference to these people.