The 2004 election results are indicative of a trend that has defined electoral politics since 1994 — the increasing dominance of the African National Congress and the weakening of opposition parties.
In 1994 the ANC won 62% of the vote. In 1999 it was 66%. Now it has 70% support. Support for opposition parties has declined from about 38% in 1994 to 30% today.
Provincially, the ANC has held on to seven provinces and is poised to enter into cooperative government in the two provinces that have eluded it since 1994 — the Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal.
What is important is to analyse the impact of these results on the country’s democratic project: basically what does this continued strength of the ANC and the decline of the opposition mean for the country’s future?
The ANC aims to use this power to reverse the political, economic and social inequalities of pre-1994 government policies, especially the legacy of apartheid.
This interpretation rings accurate, taking into account the overwhelming acceptance and legitimacy of the electoral process.
Its main challenge in the next five years is to translate its electoral promises into practical policies and achievements, by addressing the grave problems that face society.
Most pressing are unemployment, poverty, land inequities, social services, HIV/Aids, crime and national unity.
To its immense credit, the party has conceded that it has always not been successful in attaining its objectives. And it appears that South African voters are sympathetic to this view and have given the ANC the mandate to go ahead.
Ironically — despite some misgivings among opposition parties of the ANC’s increased majority — the real test of its prowess will be in the next five years, given the gravity of the challenges of delivery.
Thus, the party is going to come under intense scrutiny and pressure to deliver on this mandate. Failure to do so will make it very difficult to justify its position in five years’ time.
The true abilities of the ANC are going to be severely tested, as it has to heighten significantly its capability to meet these increased demands. Past experience and this trust of voters inculcates a sense of optimism that the ANC is up to this challenge.
And if it does deliver — and indications are that it is capable of doing so — this can only serve to strengthen the country’s democracy.
However, the performance of opposition parties is depressing.
The most crucial lesson they should learn from 2004 is that they have to address seriously the concerns of the majority of South African voters if they want to make an effective impact on the country’s future.
Discouragingly, opposition parties are adept at destroying each other, instead of challenging the ANC.
Instructively, the most successful opposition party since 1999, the Democratic Alliance, did so by trampling the New National Party.
But the DA — in 10 years — “succeeded” in jumping from less than 2% to just more than 12%. It still has to rise to the 20% the National Party had in 1994, which was also insignificant.
Also consider that, despite its success, the new Independent Democrats achieved this at the expense of the DA and NNP, and to a lesser extent the other parties.
Also, the Freedom Front Plus has managed to survive by snatching away supporters from the DA and NNP by positioning itself as the true home of the Afrikaner.
Of the other significant opposition parties, the Inkatha Freedom Party is seriously embattled, with the United Democratic Movement waning, despite becoming the third largest opposition party.
And this exactly typifies the anomaly of South African opposition politics: a party declines in strength, but improves its parliamentary standing.
The rest — such as the African Christian Democratic Party, the Pan Africanist Congress, United Christian Democratic Party, Azanian People’s Organisation and Minority Front — are just holding on for dear life, while the Federal Alliance and National Action are out of Parliament and basically dead.
Tellingly, there are about seven million eligible South African voters — a very sizeable number — who decided not to participate in this election. Opposition parties could and should mobilise them, as most likely they are not ANC supporters.
If they can win them to their side they will pose a serious challenge, even defeat the ANC — an unimaginable scenario in the present. And to achieve that they have to start carving relevant policies that appeal to voters.
And we should not forget the forthcoming local government elections and floor crossing — which, if experience is anything to go by, mean opposition parties are in for a tough time.
The real danger posed by the ANC’s increased power is if some voters continue to vote for it purely because there is no other credible alternative: and there are small but disturbing signs that this is becoming true.
Then elections are likely to descend into meaningless rituals leading to despondency, serious apathy and, God forbid, revolt — especially if the ANC fails to deliver.
Reassuringly, the ANC’s increased power might well indicate huge consensus among South Africans — especially if it continues to deliver — and this can only be positive.
Dr Thabisi Hoeane is a lecturer in the Department of Political and International Studies at Rhodes University Grahamstown. He contributes regularly to national print media. His PhD was on South African Electoral Studies and Democratisation.