Research conducted for Germany’s influential Friedrich Ebert Stiftung has warned that eight million Zimbabweans — three-quarters of the population — face severe food shortages this year as a result of plunging grain production.
The researchers also argue that shortages are being deliberately worsened by the Zimbabwean government and its statutory monopoly, the Grain Marketing Board (GMB), for political purposes. They suggest that with an election looming, the government may not ask donors for much-needed food aid this year.
”Initially people were talking of food shortage, but ‘famine’ now seems a more appropriate term,” says the research body, Zimconsult. ”No one ever contemplated that Zimbabwe, formerly the bread basket of Southern Africa, would be referred to in terms of famine.”
Based on a 10-day physical survey of Zimbabwe’s grain-producing areas, and crop forecasts from various sources, the study projects a production shortfall of between 600 000 and 900 000 tonnes this year. Projected demand is 1,9-million tonnes of maize and small grains, such as rice.
However, it emphasises that the official information blackout on production makes it difficult to quantify the projected shortfall with certainty. ”Donors, who must be thanked for saving the lives of well over six million people over the past three years, are exasperated by the lack of information.”
The study lays the blame for the impending crisis squarely on President Robert Mugabe’s ”fast-track resettlement programme”, which, it says, destroyed vital agricultural infrastructure, parcelled out land to party loyalists who had no intention of farming, and was carried out without planning.
It also criticises the government’s manipulation of food for political gain and apparent lack of concern for hungry Zimbabweans.
In terms of Statutory Instrument 235A of 2001, all maize must be sold to a ”militarised” GMB, which then resells its stocks to card-carrying members of the ruling Zanu-PF.
The government has never disclosed how much maize was produced in the 2002/03 season or how much was bought by the GMB, the study says. However, investigations revealed that the board purchased 250 000 tonnes, which were not released on to the market, despite ”severe shortages of mealie meal in much of the country until recently”.
Raised to perhaps 400 000 tonnes by additional purchases this year, these stocks will be used for election purposes.
With an election in prospect and political control over food assuming greater importance, the researchers raise questions about whether any government request for food assistance will be submitted to aid organisations this year.
They point out that last year the government delayed approaching the United Nations development programme for food aid until July, long after ”well-documented concerns voiced by the opposition party and the donor community”.
The study also says that although planning for the 2004/05 growing season should be at an advanced stage, as recommended by Parliament’s agriculture committee, ”it is common knowledge that nothing is being done”.
Zimconsult’s report singles out three constraints on production, which it traces directly to the fast-track land resettlement and other government failures — shortages of seed and fertiliser and inadequate tillage.
In implementing the programme, the government decreed seed producers should not be expropriated, and classified them as agro-industries. However, in practice Agriculture Minister Joseph Made has taken over all white farms, including those growing for seed.
The study says newly settled farmers produce an average of 0,4 tonnes of seed maize a hectare, compared with the five tonnes a hectare produced by commercial farmers. Available seed means that under optimal conditions a maximum of 960 000 tonnes of maize could have been grown this year. In addition, the shortage means that seed is too expensive for many communal and resettled farmers, with many buying enough only for subsistence.
On the fertiliser front, producers told Parliament’s agriculture committee that their operations have been severely curtailed by the shortage of foreign currency needed for the import of raw materials and spare parts. Securing only 30% of their requirements, they had joined the ”parallel market” for foreign exchange, driving up their prices.
Aggravating this was the railways’ delivery of only 58% of required raw materials, forcing producers to use road hauliers that are up to 15 times more expensive.
Despite these constraints, the government has imposed strict price controls on fertilisers, which ”had no relationship with … costs encountered in production.”
The result is that the fertiliser industry will produce 249 000 tonnes between January and August this year — a deficit of 130 000 tonnes. The arrival of more farmers on the land, through the resettlement programme, has served to heighten demand.
The third production constraint highlighted by the researchers is tillage, which District Development Fund (DDF) tractors are obliged to provide for communal and resettled farmers in terms of govern- ment policy.
However, the portfolio committee heard that 50% of DDF tractors are grounded by a shortage of spare parts, forcing many farmers to rely on their own draught power. Compounding this are acute shortages of diesel.
Early rains in November last year encouraged many farmers to plant maize. However, a subsequent dry spell has written off the early plantings.
The Zimconsult report contains alarming accounts of the state of crops in the ground in various producing areas.
In Mashonaland West, traditionally Zimbabwe’s largest maize grower, ”the hectares being cultivated are low and the yields well below historical levels”. While more than 300 000 tonnes of maize could have been expected, given seed availability, overall production is unlikely to exceed 190 000 tonnes.
Zvimba communal area is described as ”a complete disaster … yellow stunted stocks, already tasselling at two feet tall, exemplify the maize crop”.
The researchers place heavy emphasis on the plight of urban Zimbabweans, saying 2,5-million of them are likely to suffer food shortages this year.
”In urban areas, which are strongholds of the [opposition] Movement for Democratic Change, the sale of maize by the GMB has been stopped and maize is instead sold through Zanu-PF councillors,” they say.
In March the MDC mayor of Mutare tried to use money collected by his Christmas Cheer Fund to buy maize from the GMB for distribution to the destitute. The request was refused.