The African Parliament is the glittering prize South Africa is expected to be handed at the African Union summit in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, this week.
AU officials already gathered in the Ethiopian capital say there is only a slim chance that Egypt will grab it when the 53 member states finally vote on who will be awarded the right to host the Parliament.
Nevertheless, the South African team is guarding against hubris. The Egyptians have been lobbying furiously and, as they showed earlier this year, they are prepared to take off the gloves when necessary.
But South Africa has a successful strategy for achieving its goal in the AU. It focuses on a few important goals and hides its determination behind a facade of humility and gentle bonhomie. In this way, it secured the right to host the inaugural summit of the union two years ago and ensured that President Thabo Mbeki’s New Partnership for Africa’s Development (Nepad) became the development plan of the AU.
Also, at every turn, South Africa puts its hand up when good offices and resources — both human and financial — are required to mediate disputes and end conflict.
This approach has taxed the South African military to the hilt, with it having to send 1 400 soldiers to the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and 1 600 to Burundi. In the latter case, it cost South African taxpayers half a billion rand a year. But it has earned South Africa credit in a world grown tired of putting out Africa’s fires.
Mbeki has also carefully avoided making enemies on the continent. To this end South Africa has measured its ambitions. Pointedly, no South African candidates were nominated last year for consideration in the powerful AU Commission — which drives the organisation’s policy decisions and runs the secretariat.
The trade-off was an assurance that South Africa would get one of the heavyweight positions in the African Peace and Security Council. South Africa assumes the chairmanship of that body this month.
The council will make recommendations to the summit on the peace processes in Burundi, Darfur, Côte d’Ivoire and the DRC.
Mbeki has always believed that steering continental policy on life and death situations is more important in the long term than being integrally involved in the day-to-day running of the organisation.
To the head-shaking disapproval of Western observers, Zimbabwe can once again confidently expect to be kept off the AU’s “worry list”. This is the group of countries with problems threatening to hamstring their own development and spill over to their neighbours.
AU Commission chairperson Alpha Oumar Konare is hoping the leaders do not spend too much time on conflict and political issues. He has sweated this year to produce three studies that will provide an operating structure for the commission and lead to what he believes can be a muscular driving force for the union.
Leaders are being directed towards these documents: The Vision of the African Union and the Mission of the AU Commission; The 2004-2007 Strategic Framework of the AU Commission; and The Action Plan of the Various Departments of the Commission.
As the former president of Mali, however, Konare knows that he will have his work cut out interesting the leaders in the dry dishes of administration when they have a meatier feast of politicking and horse-trading.
For example, the third summit of the AU could see a renewed attempt by Morocco to rejoin the body. Rabat quit in anger when the then-Organisation of African Unity granted recognition to the Saharawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR).
Last week King Mohamed VI went on a charm offensive to five African countries: Benin, Cameroon, Gabon, Niger and Senegal. However, he did not venture beyond those countries that support Morocco’s illegal 29-year occupation of the Western Sahara. All have previously been involved in trying to get Morocco rehabilitated.
The majority position remains that the kingdom may return when it wishes, but not at the cost of expelling the SADR.