While the fate of two South Africans being held for suspected terrorist activities in Pakistan remained unclear on Friday, an independent analyst described their situation as bleak.
If tried in Pakistan, the death penalty is mandatory for terrorism and the definition of the crime very broad, said South African Institute of International Affairs war and organised crime researcher Gail Wannenburg.
The men are said to be Feroze Ganchi, a doctor from Fordsburg, Johannesburg; and 20-year-old student Zubair Ismael from Laudium in Pretoria.
Should they be handed over to the United States, the men are likely to spend a long time awaiting trial in a detention facility like Guantanamo Bay — the US military prison in Cuba.
They would probably be considered illegal combatants under American law, meaning that minimum international standards of detention would not apply to them, she said.
Terrorism is a capital crime in some US states.
”Their situation would appear to be quite bleak, particularly if they are deported to the US,” Wannenburg said. ”I would be quite worried if I were in their shoes.”
The South African government could on Friday give no update on the men’s position.
On Thursday, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Aziz Pahad met Pakistani High Commissioner Akbar Zeb in Pretoria to request access to the men.
He also asked for details of the arrests ”to enable the South African government to determine the course of action to be followed”.
The high commissioner committed his government to assisting South Africa and enabling consular visits to the men.
Asked on Friday whether arrangements for a visit are under way, a departmental spokesperson said: ”There is no further information. The status is as yesterday.”
The pair went missing 11 days ago while they were supposed to be hiking in the mountains of eastern Pakistan.
The men were among about a dozen detained after a 12-hour shootout with security forces at a house in Gujrat, south-east of Islamabad, on Sunday.
According to foreign news agencies, a Tanzanian al-Qaeda suspect wanted by the US for the 1998 bombings of the American embassies in Kenya and Tanzania was among those arrested.
Ahmed Khalfan Ghailani is reportedly on the FBI’s list of 22 most wanted terrorists, with a $25-million reward on his head.
If any link is established between Ghailani and the South Africans, they are likely to be deported to the US, Wannenburg said. But the burden of proof would be very low, she said, as the US and Pakistan ”have both not been very open about the evidence they rely on in such cases”.
Several Guantanamo Bay detainees have been released due to insufficient evidence against them.
”Even if they only found themselves there [in the house] by chance and were not linked to any terrorism, it is going to be quite bad for them. They will be regarded as having colluded with the others by resisting arrest,” Wannenburg said.
Regarding the South African government’s involvement, she said a precedent has been set by its treatment of 70 citizens being held in Zimbabwe on suspicion of plotting to overthrow the government of Equatorial Guinea.
The government is not obliged to intervene in any prosecution and is limited to providing consular services and trying to ensure at a diplomatic level that citizens detained abroad receive a free and fair trial.
Only after a citizen has been sentenced can the government seek assurances that the death penalty not be imposed, and only at a diplomatic level, she said.
Wannenburg said the men will be better off if they remain in Pakistan. The South African government will be in a better position to influence events through its close political ties with that country.
”Pakistan is difficult to describe. While it is basically run by a military leader, it is also regarded as a reforming country. Some people, however, say it is too close to the US.”
The US embassy in Pretoria said it has received no indication of its government seeking the men’s deportation. It declined to comment further.
No official was available at the Pakistani high commission for comment. The US Department of State could also not be immediately reached. — Sapa