Life after President Robert Mugabe is a thought that has been avoided for more than two decades, but the old man will not be seeking re-election in 2008. Meanwhile, three camps have emerged within Zanu-PF in the run-up to the party’s congress in December where Mugabe’s successor will be decided.
Zanu-PF heavyweights are building alliances that have drawn in the police, army and war veterans.
The intellectual wing — the ”young turks” — includes Information Minister Jonathan Moyo, Agriculture Minister Joseph Made and Justice Minister Patrick Chinamasa and has led a ”propaganda war on unrepentant Western countries”.
The group has seen support from National Security Minister Nicholas Goche, Minister without Portfolio Elliot Manyika, Mashonaland West leader Philip Chiyangwa and Police Commissioner Augustine Chihuri.
The group does not have a leader but Moyo’s profile as the public face of the anti-colonial onslaught has upped his appeal with the party rank and file. He has also been spending money at grassroots level. The only other persons with strong grassroots support are Goche and Manyika.
Another area of leverage has been Moyo’s control over the public media, allowing the group a powerful tool to influence political discourse. Coupled to this, Goche’s hold over intelligence means they are privy to the happenings in Mugabe’s innermost circle.
Chiyangwa, a recent convert to the young turks camp, has been in and out of prison on charges of contempt of court and obstruction of justice, but Moyo’s press has come to his defence, allowing him to fight the Mashonaland West corner for the group.
Made was stripped of the land reform portfolio in the last Cabinet reshuffle, but is a close friend of Moyo’s and continues to receive positive press.
Although the young turks repeatedly opposed the extension of Chihuri’s tenure, he has endeared himself to them through his heavy-handed approach to journalists.
Moyo’s tendency to rubbish party stalwarts in the media is, however, seen as reckless and as creating enemies within the party that could cost his camp dearly.
The second camp — consisting of die-hard comrades who fought the liberation war from Mgagao in Tanzania to Zambia and Mozambique — is regarded as the real Zanu-PF wing and is well respected by Mugabe. Its members have their tentacles running into the heart and soul of the party and can direct events within the army and intelligence as well as appeal to the party’s old guard.
The camp has no leader and operates through consensus between Defence Minister Sydney Sekeramayi, retired army supremo General Solomon Mujuru, Intelligence Chief Happyton Bonyongwe, retired prisons chief Major General Paradzayi Zimondi, army commander Constantine Chiwenga, Higher Education Minister Herbert Murerwa, retired youth and gender minister Brigadier Ambrose Mutinhiri, Harare Governor Witness Mangwende and, the little known but effective, Zanu-PF Mashonaland East provincial chairperson Ray Kaukonde.
This group, largely of the Zezuru Shona tribe, has the respect of senior leadership in Zanu-PF’s Ndebele Matebeleland provinces, such as Land Reform Minister John Nkomo, Vice President Joseph Msika and former intelligence boss Dumiso Dabengwa.
It successfully countered Emmerson Mnangagwa’s 2000 bid for the post of chairperson and helped install Nkomo by consulting with the late Zanu-PF Masvingo province political godfather Eddison Zvobgo. This camp continues to have links with the Zvobgo faction.
A leading light in this camp is Mugabe confidante Sekeramayi. The group, though lacking the charisma of the young turks, is known to have decided the political fate of an individual over a braai or glass of whisky. They are not as rooted in key districts such as West and Central Mashonaland, Midlands and Manicaland, but command respect among influential players in these provinces.
The young turks are well aware that any ill-spirited campaign against this group would be suicidal.
The third camp has a leader in Parliament Speaker Mnangagwa, who hails from the Midlands province. Three months ago he was awarded an honorary doctorate by the Midlands State University, amid speculation that it had been engineered by Zanu-PF leaders to revive his political aspirations.
That Mnangagwa is unpopular stands uncontested largely because of his role in the Matabeleland massacres in the early Eighties.
The United Nations has implicated him in Democratic Republic of Congo mineral deals and he is being probed on charges of corruption and financial irregularities in Zanu-PF companies and gold dealings on mines in his Midlands province.
The public media has been serialising the Zanu-PF probe into the affairs of its companies, headed by Mnangagwa. His fortunes also took a knock with the death of his spiritual father, former vice president Simon Muzenda.
Prominent businessmen, including Chiyangwa now with the young turks, have also deserted him.
Mnangagwa can, however, rely on the support of the war veterans led by Jabulani Sibanda. And he could be thrown a lifeline by Mugabe, who allegedly preferres him as the succession candidate.
Analysts say Mugabe, shrewd as he is, could cut a deal for Mnangagwa with provincial leaders.
As the three camps battle it out, other influential leaders have seemingly stayed out of the fray. These include former finance minister Simba Makoni and Zanu-PF national chairperson John Nkomo. The Zanu-PF Congress in four months time will be anything but boring.