The fact that investors channelled a net record R15-billion into unit trusts into the third quarter is an indication of improved sentiment towards the market as a result of recent strong gains from the lows of March last year, according to Investec Asset Management director Jeremy Gardiner.
“It is very encouraging to see strong returns coming through to reward loyal investors,” he said.
He added, however, that the one negative from the statistics was that interest in offshore funds remained subdued. He pointed out that with the currency at current levels, investors will not get a better opportunity to diversify their portfolios.
“While the rand is currently more attractive than the dollar and the JSE [Securities Exchange] more attractive than the United States markets, it won’t always be the case. It is ironic that what we are seeing now with the currency at R6,50 to the dollar is essentially a 50% discount sale on dollars.
“When a dollar cost double the current price, people were mortgaging their houses to buy the greenback. Now, with a 50% sale, interest in buying dollars is muted,” Gardiner said.
“It is also good to see investors increasing their stake in domestic equity funds. We believe that despite the recent strong performance, the JSE can continue to deliver solid inflation beating returns. However, stock picking is important.
“It is also vital for investors to adjust their return expectations, as we live in an environment where inflation is sustainably between 3% and 6%. Prior to 1994, we had 21 years of double-digit inflation, so hefty returns were required simply to stay ahead of inflation.
“Today, a 9% return will give you roughly a respectable 5% real return. When inflation was running at 15%, your investment needed to yield 20% to achieve the same real [ahead of inflation] return.” — I-Net Bridge