Americans will vote on Tuesday in what many believe is the most important election of their lives — a bitter contest over national identity that has broken political records.
The two candidates ended their campaigns with every opinion poll showing the race as tight as it has ever been.
In 10 polls of likely voters over the past three days, President George Bush led in five, John Kerry led in three, and the candidates were tied in two. The gap in every case was within the margin of error. Ralph Nader, the independent third party candidate, mostly scored between zero and 2%.
The sheer intensity of the duel between Bush and Kerry was reflected in the fury of the last day’s campaigning. The Democratic challenger made two stops in Ohio, two in Wisconsin and one in Michigan, while the president criss-crossed the nation making seven stops in six battleground states, from Pennsylvania to New Mexico.
The frenetic pace brought the two campaigns to within a few blocks of each other in Milwaukee, holding noon rallies on a dismal Wisconsin day.
With everything staked on the rival party machines galvanising their supporters, the sheer pressure of the race led both candidates to consider abandoning the traditional day of rest on election day.
The president, who had been due to spend much of today at his Texas ranch before flying to Washington on Tuesday night, was reported to be considering a surprise dash to swing states, possibly Florida and Ohio. Kerry was planning a visit to La Crosse, Wisconsin.
Such a move would not be the only way that this election, contested against a backdrop of war abroad and deep cultural conflict at home, has broken the political mould.
It is by far the most expensive vote in history, costing well over $1-billion. Television advertising has cost an estimated $550-million, with $60-million in television spots broadcast in the last week alone to an already jaded audience in about a dozen swing states.
The intense emotions stirred up by the battle have also reversed a long trend towards lower voter interest in politics.
”By virtue of the level of voter interest, it’s clear people are voting as if their lives depended on it,” John Zogby, the head of the polling company Zogby International, said.
The intensity of feeling was particularly pronounced among young voters.
Zogby said that, according to his own polling, ”among young voters between the ages of 18 and 29, zero said they were undecided. That suggests a very high level of interest among people who historically are not that engaged — young African-American males, for example”.
He expected the youth vote to account for 12% of the electorate, but two thirds of any youth turnout above that would be to Kerry’s benefit.
The prospect of the highest turnout for at least a decade, and possibly much longer, could also benefit the challenger.
”A higher voter turnout … is historically bad news for the incumbent,” Zogby said. ”My hunch tells me that we’re looking at a Kerry victory.”
However, Karl Rove, the president’s political adviser, predicted a comfortable win for Bush.
”We will win Florida and Ohio,” he said backstage at a Bush rally. ”We’ll take two or three or four states that were won by Gore in the last election.”
Among the quarter of the electorate who have taken the opportunity to vote early, the candidates were reported to be neck and neck. Last night, a line of more than 500 people snaked across a Miami forecourt, the last enthusiasts waiting to cast their vote early.
Some had waited for up to five hours, gratefully taking bottles of water handed out by supporters of both candidates.
”Ain’t no way Bush is stealing it this time,” said 18-year-old Tia Martin.
Ultimate victory will depend on party activists and their capacity to deliver their supporters to the polls today. Rove claimed that the Bush campaign would on Tuesday have 1,4-million volunteers making calls and ferrying people to the polls.
”It’s more than doubled since 2000,” he said. ”One lesson we learned last time is that we had to have centralised direction so that we made sure we had the volunteers where we needed them.”
The Democratic force is more decentralised, with the work being divided among unions, liberal interest groups and local party volunteers, but the party also reported doubling the foot soldiers it had at its disposal four years ago.
Both sides are also ready for the possibility that the election will be so close that it may be resolved once more in the courts.
Both have thousands of lawyers on standby to fly to the scene of a recount dispute.
For the Democrats, there was one positive omen.
It is part of US political lore that whenever the Washington Redskins football team lose their last Sunday game before the election, the incumbent will be defeated. It has held true since 1936, and on Sunday the Redskins lost. – Guardian Unlimited Â