Business confidence continued its slightly downward trend in November, the South African Chamber of Business (Sacob) index showed on Tuesday.
The business confidence index came in at 125,1, dropping from a high of 130,9 in September, Sacob reported.
”It seems that the favourable conditions that induced the improved business confidence levels have peaked. The business mood will, however, probably remain positive in the foreseeable future,” it said in a statement.
Business confidence in the country has been generally positive since July 2003, but the tempo has slowed in the last half of the year.
Consumer confidence unchanged
Meanwhile, consumer confidence remained virtually unchanged at optimistic levels in the last quarter of this year, according to figures released on Tuesday.
This is ascribed to unchanging interest rates, home and share prices continuing to rally and price increases — except petrol — remaining subdued during the period.
The findings emerged from the latest consumer confidence index of First National Bank (FNB) and the University of Stellenbosch’s Bureau for Economic Research (BER).
They said in a statement the persistent high confidence levels of the high-income group bode well for consumer spending in general.
The same applied to spending on durable goods, such as vehicles, furniture and appliances, electronic goods and jewellery, and semi-durables, such as clothing and vehicle spare parts in particular.
”Furthermore, the prospects for consumer spending in general and spending on non-durables, like food and beverages and services, remained bright given the upward shift in the confidence levels of the low-income group,” said the researchers.
Consumer confidence as measured by the FNB/BER consumer confidence index moved mainly sideways from plus two during the third quarter to plus one during the fourth quarter.
FNB chief economist Cees Bruggemans said consumer confidence jumped from minus 10 in the first quarter to plus 17 in the second quarter.
It retracted by half to plus two in the third quarter and remained unchanged at plus one in the fourth quarter.
He said the third-quarter decline in confidence was to be expected, given the second quarter’s exceptional rally on account of South Africa’s winning the right to host the Soccer World Cup in 2010.
”It was encouraging that all the second-quarter gains were not wiped out during the third quarter,” Bruggemans said.
”The fourth-quarter results confirm the third-quarter results. Supporting the view that consumer confidence is relatively high is the fact that confidence remained above its long-term average of minus four index points.”
During the fourth quarter, most consumers continued expecting an improvement in economic performance, foreseeing a change for the better in their own finances.
They rated the present as the right time to buy durable goods.
Few whites confident
Only a small majority of white consumers are confident, according to Bruggemans.
”Black consumer confidence continued to outrank white consumers with a reading of plus three, but the two groups are very close, as they have been for most of the past three years.
”The main thing to be said about black consumers is that a small majority has now been confident for three quarters, compared to being moderately negative for five years previously.
”White consumers at zero confirm the rising long-term trend from deeply pessimistic levels in 1998. Coloured consumers retreated more noticeably, easing six points to a reading of minus five. Indian consumers remained the great pessimists by far at minus 16 [an improvement of six points for the quarter].
”The reason for this sentiment is not clear.”
High confidence among youth
Consumer confidence among youth has reached a record high — rising by 10 points to a reading of plus 27 — Bruggemans said.
”This group [aged 16 to 24] is very outspokenly positive about the outlook for the country in the next 12 months, and is doing handstands about now being a time to buy durables.
”Clearly [this is due to] too much pocket money but also [perhaps] more employment.
”The other age groups barely turned a hair this quarter.”
Bruggemans said the 25-to-34 age group had a consistently high positive consumer reading for three quarters in a row, compared with five years of indifference before then.
”It would seem the younger generation is looking at things very positively. In contrast, those over 50 years of age are back to being their pessimistic selves, though even they have shown a rising tendency in sentiment these past five years.” — Sapa