One of the most divisive campaigns in France’s recent political history drew to a close on Friday night as the country contemplated the enormity of its intention — clearly signalled in a string of opinion polls — to reject the European Constitution treaty.
With two final surveys putting the no vote at between 52% and 55%, commentators said it would be ”a monumental surprise” and ”a miracle” if the yes campaign won Sunday’s referendum.
Last-minute efforts by the President, Jacques Chirac, and other European leaders were given little chance of bringing about a change of heart. Most observers agreed that Chirac’s television appeal on Thursday would have little impact on an electorate that seems mostly to have made up its mind: only 20% of voters, almost all on the left, are still undecided.
Similarly, calls by Italy’s Prime Minister, Silvio Berlusconi, in Rome, and from his Spanish counterpart, José Luis Zapatero, and German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder — both of whom were at the final rallies of the campaign in France on Friday night — were expected to fall on deaf ears, or prove counterproductive because of complaints in the no camp at outside meddling.
The yes campaign refused to give up, saying the outcome could hinge on voter turnout, predicted by most polling groups at about 67%, and a small pool of voters that is still undecided or have not yet revealed its intentions.
The main support for the treaty comes from the elderly, the well-educated, business people and centre-right voters.
The no camp is dominated by blue-collar workers, the far and centre left, and the far right. With traditional political alliances divided, it is difficult to predict who would benefit from a high or low turnout.
Brice Teinturier of the TNS Sofres polling agency suggested a big turnout would favour the highly mobilised no campaign, while a low turnout may boost the yes.
Pressure on France from the rest of Europe mounted as Germany completed its ratification of the treaty in a vote in the Upper House that was rescheduled to set an example.
In Brussels, the European Union’s vice- president, Margot Wallstrom, said France’s rejection would not stop the approval process in the rest of the union.
”We now have nine member states, representing 220-million citizens, which have approved the Constitution,” she said. ”The voice of nearly 50% of the EU cannot be ignored.”
Many opponents of the treaty in France are convinced it can be renegotiated on France’s terms, taking account of the main left-wing objection that it represents a blueprint for an unacceptably free-market Europe that would destroy French jobs and wreck France’s social services.
But observers were not so sanguine.
”If the no wins, there’ll be not only a European crisis but huge political upheaval in France,” said Christophe Barbier, political editor of L’Express magazine. ”All the leaders of the big parties will be discredited.”
Britain is also bracing for a backlash. Downing Street expects Chirac to respond to defeat by trying to derail the economic reform agenda being planned by the upcoming British presidency of the EU.
Suspicions of the Anglo-Saxon economic model have been a major rallying point for the no camp.
But French sources denied that he would pressure British Prime Minister Tony Blair by demanding that the EU ratification process go ahead elsewhere, including in Britain. Blair has no desire to hold an unwinnable referendum next year in the wake of a French defeat that makes the treaty impossible to pass.
The polling booths in France open at 8am on Sunday and will close 12 hours later everywhere expect in Paris and Lyons, where they will stay open until 10pm. The first exit polls will be made public soon after.
Chirac’s promise that he will inject a ”new impetus” into his government was interpreted that his first step after a no vote would be to fire his Prime Minister, Jean-Pierre Raffarin, to be most likely replaced by the Interior Minister, Dominique de Villepin. — Guardian Unlimited Â